Cable might retrace lower

The dollar has declined across the board with few exceptions in recent weeks after lower inflation in the USA and increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut three times before the end of the year. Recent developments in American politics haven’t had a clear effect on forex, but traders will continue to monitor polling as the presidential election approaches in November.

The ascending triangle on the chart would typically suggest an upward breakout at completion, but the context of very high momentum relative to a forex pair and strong buying saturation make that questionable. The price has extended quite far beyond all of the moving averages and might be expected to retrace before another aggressive move up. $1.30 is a critical resistance which hasn’t clearly been broken yet, so after a somewhat weaker job report it might be possible to see an extended retracement or consolidation before any other possible move up.

More insight might come from British retail sales early on Friday 19 July. 25 July’s advance GDP for the second quarter in the USA is the critical release next week.

This is my personal opinion which does not reflect the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.