GBP/USD - riding the pullback until it's a pushup

2022年1月18日

SMALL, MEDIUM or LARGE ??

PRICE had the breakout from the longer term daily downtrend channel and is naturally a little nervous to continue. It’s had a good run from 20th December 2021 and the FIBS are taken from that date.

To continue GBP needs to encourage more BUYERS and to do that, it needs to offer a discount but how much is it willing to offer. The bigger the discount, the more the BUYERS.

On the intraday hourly chart PRICE is languishing between the 100 and 200 SMAs (Blue and Fuchsia) and at a SMALL area of interest. It’s popped out of the recent upward channel but nothing is shouting BUY. At the very least PRICE would have to break out of the 4 day downward channel and the MACD histogram turn GREEN with the 10EMA>20EMA. Even if that happens, the odds are currently against it succeeding.

ATM I favour a pullback to the LARGE area of interest. My “arrow” graphics are just that and not an indication of exact time or PRICE points.

My intraday trading chart which is the 15m had been a SELL since Friday PM and remains looking for intraday SELL opportunities until further notice.

TS

2022年1月18日

註釋

Plan a trade and trade a plan.

Here's the 15m chart (my trading chart)

Out for 45 points +/- (10<20)<(40<80) at the MEDIUM area of interest and touch of the lower RC. I still favour the LARGE area of interest but it's too much to ask to reach that today as it's way beyond the ADR (little red crosses) . . . maybe tomorrow or day after . . . wait and see how things develop.

Do your homework, keep it simple and don't over think things.

TS

2022年1月19日

註釋

So what is she going to do today ?

The RED route or the BLUE route . . . or did the discount to the MEDIUM zone yesterday encourage enough BUYERS back to push her higher.

ATM the odds favour a continuation downward but there isn't a valid SELL signal to jump in yet.

The RC has been extended to take in more PRICE info and as long as the Pearson's continues to increase, the RC remains the valid PRICE channel.

The 60m 100EMA (FUSCHIA) is within reach and just outside the RC so remains a psychological draw.

It's a waiting game . . . there are no trade signals either way with the BEARS marginally ahead on probabilities for a continuation down to the LARGE area of interest in RED.

UK CPI (YOY DEC) came in higher at 5.4% which is generally supportive of GBP and Bailey is slated to speak at 2.15pm GMT . . . will that nudge things in one direction or another, I have no idea . . . . I trade what I see.

TS