GBPUSD short entry zones to watch: GU downtrend continuation

2018年10月19日

Looking for GU to bounce in London Friday session, and then resume downtrend in NY session.
Entry possibilities are the Red zones of interest.
Take Profit are the Green Zones of interest.

The EW waves drawn are the type of behavior I am looking for.
But if some Brexit news comes out to add even more uncertainty, I will add shorts immediately.

Background:
I am a Dollar Bull and Pound Bear, and will remain so until BOE starts talking about rate hikes or PM May starts presenting a positive and plausible Brexit scenario.

My GU adventure started with a search for top of uptrend around Sept 20th

Then came the big drop, which I caught most of. Then I started looking for bounces to short

After catching a few scalps and a couple big rides down, I was then waiting for a pull back again

Then, just before NFP, the Pound started getting some good news and showing signs of bullishness so I threw some longs down

The I started looking for shorts again, as the uptrend started to get tired

There were of course some plans that did not execute, or failed, but even then the zones were proven relevant and I got scalps in with tiny profits or break even. Such as this plan

Which brings me to the current plan to watch for bounces to short more

2018年10月19日

註釋

GU definitely noticed by first zone but we are pre-London Open. But a good sign that my fibs are true. Just a question of what the London Boys will do with it WITHIN the bounds defined by the Fibs.

2018年10月19日

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Well, that was a nice little scalp. But it think it might have been a bear trap to open London trading, so took my profits and will look to re-enter.

2018年10月19日

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Another perfect rejection from the first resistance zone, after barely breaking above it. Quite a bearish signal, so shorts fired again!

2018年10月19日

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Brexit news gave Pound a boost (PM May looks to relax on Irish border issue), so GBP might have some strength into next week :(

2018年10月21日

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GU currently stuck between two zones. Notice the exact effect of the fib lines of each zone

2018年10月22日

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No big surprise that Asian session would follow the support and resistance zones without enough power to break through

2018年10月22日

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Even within the longer tf fib zones in red, GU is following the microscopic fib ladder quite precisely.

2018年10月22日

註釋

GU played out about as expected

But I was a little disappointed to have missed the exact top. Then I figure it out, it was the 2.382 that did it, not the 2.618 guess that was a bull trap at London Open on a Monday (run up above the 2.618 to get people long then slam it down!

Based on the fib observations, my new support resistance zones of interest are:

Based on the momentum of the move, I think there may be one more leg down yet, to the 5.382 I will evaluate some more and post a new Idea if things lock in.

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