GBP/USD Neutral Set Up

2017年10月22日

There are two eventualities for the pair, a move into prior support and a retracement higher or a break below prior support a move lower.

This pair is being driven by fundamentals with the Brexit negotiations stalling and self destruct rhetoric becoming more common from the UK government, this is likely to dampen sterlings recovery.

Technically the pair is in a medium term bull run however a major correction to the downside could be in play and we are at a key decision point for the pair to either pull higher or drift lower, watch the lowest yellow zone for your long/short opportunity.

My Trading Rules - How I identify trades, define my edge and manage the commercials:

First I define my 'edge' which simply means a set of circumstances that indicate one eventuality is greater than another.

My Edge: (How I decide on if I should enter)

1) Is defined as trading in the direction of the overriding daily trend (Bullish, Bearish or Neutral)
2) In a trending marketing I look for entries at corrective price structure
3) In a neutral market I trade the upper and lower most extremes of the support and resistance levels
4) In the case of a breakout I seek an entry in the direction of the break

Next I follow 4 rules for undertaking analysis: (How I spot opportunities)

1) Analysis must clearly define a 'bias' and the parameters for invalidating 'bias'
2) Analysis must clearly provide a trade set-up with entry, take profit and stop loss
3) Analysis must debunk a trade in the opposite direction
4) Analysis must factor in sentiment and fundamental factors

So now I know my edge and how to spot opportunities the next is how to manage trades: (How I decide on the commercials of a trade)

1) Take profit should be set at a key fibonacci and/or price structure level
2) Stop loss should be no more than 3% per trade (sum of total positions)
3) Entry should feature 2 or more positions
4) Entry at market is forbidden to mitigate impulse trading (I only trade via orders)