GBP/USD is Cable ready for resumption ?

2014年7月29日

GBP/USD felt to really important level if there's an chance that it will conitnue the uptrend that we might be just getting to the entry point at the moment. There's an confluence of green marked Demand zone, 50% Fibo retracement of last swing up (1,669-1,719), daily trend line and the previous smaller leg up low at 1,685 level (red circle). Todays down move was mostly EUR/GBP strenght driven and that's not an rarity that EUR/GBP finds some demand at the end of a month with Bundes Bank selling pounds for Euro which is due to Great Britian paying it's European Union charges in Pounds. There's also an bullish divergence present on 4 Hour chart which might be another signal to go long there, the Risk:Reward ratio (around 7,5) would be great as if we get an bounce here I'd aim for another high close to 1,73 level which is an monthly time frame important Fibo level (50% retracement of down move from 2,12 to 1,35). Stop loss for long entry would be placed under the last dip towards 1,69 level (blue elipse)

Things to keep in mind~

There's Q2 GDP reading in USA tomorrow which should be around 3% q/q (which will mean that they moved nowhere in last 6 months)
There's FOMC meeting tomorrow with another tapper in "measured steps" as granny said 100 times and there's nothing much to expect from FOMC members then that. I can't find any justification to look for any hints of rate hike at tomorrows press conference after the meeting so Dolar bulls might get a little slap after that event.
On the other hand there's IMF report telling us that Pound is overvalued and that might hurt British economy and we've got NFP numbers in USA this Friday which tend to be really good last months. The thing with NFP numbers and unemployment rate is that they are not "soo" important anymore after FED stated that they will look for inflation data mostly and all other data before deciding to hike rates.