黃金期貨看空
Gold GC1 - Discard Greed, Enjoy the Tranquility of Rationality
已更新
Gold is one of those things that has always made humans go mad with greed. There's a deeper reason for this that people can't quite grasp on the surface, but the metal has significant inner meaning for many cultures, families, societies, and belief systems.
I've heard over the last few weeks that the Chinese Communist Party has been buying tons and tons of gold, and this news has been used to drive the price back to that $1,923 ATH, which for many years, nobody thought would ever come again, and then happened again after COVID, and then was lost.
But you should always remember when a government and a central bank is in trouble, and the CCP is in significant trouble with the damage Wuhan Pneumonia and Xi Jinping's worthless "Zero COVID" social credit persecution of his own people has wrought to the Chinese economy, they tend to buy a lot of gold in an effort to make the situation look "totally great."
But gold is hard to trade for critical commodities like oil and food, and USD still reigns supreme, whether you like it or not.
Of all regimes, the worthless and wicked CCP is the one you want to trust the least. Really, those rogues are the ones you ought have so little faith in that you totally oppose them and cheer on their annihilation. Never forget these words: 'China' is not 'the CCP'.
Moreover, Washington/NATO are also not a big fan of Xi's control of the Party. When a whale takes a big speculative cash position, those who count as "Gods" are given an opportunity to dump it in the other direction, forcing their opponent to sell huge quantities of bullion at a loss.
Xi and his beloved CCP barely even count as whales at this point in history. They're about as much of a "whale" as Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX were.
Think that one over.
Moreover, Jim Cramer said in July of 2022 that gold "is one of three things that 'holds its value in a recession.'" Well, gold followed everything else to dump during 2020 COVID hysteria, and it lost 30% of its value during the '08 Financial Crisis too.
Here's the problem with gold making a new all-time high this easily:
1. When gold makes a new $2,100+ ATH, it should really take off for a "commodities supercycle" like wheat, copper, soy, corn did last year.
2. Gold's trading to the $1,630 range was merely a gap fill from the April COVID rebound run
3. $1,630 is still $100 above total long-term range equilibrium
3 (b). This means a new ATH now would indicate a stop raid followed by an eternal dump. Possible, but not very likely at this point in history.
What I believe will happen is this:
In terms of timing, the Bank of Japan does its monetary policy thing on Tuesday, and with how much Yen it has had to print to maintain the (all new) 0.50% cap on 10Y bonds, we can expect they will be forced to relax Yield Curve Control again, probably to 1%
Imo, this will cause markets to dump and arguably be choppy, but on the recovery/bull side heading into Feb. 1 FOMC.
Markets will feign "indecisive" until Feb. 1 FOMC, which is likely to be a 0.25% FFR hike, triggering a mega rally in equities, a rally which commodities stop tracking.
All of the above amounts to an exit rally for Japan's old money, which is a simply fundamental driver in the equities market as one of the most liquid populous seeks yield that its own central bank has refused for years to offer.
When the 10Y JGB yield is 1.5% Japanese money will leave US equities and start buying its own bonds. YCC will ultimately be relaxed way beyond 1.5%.
Once the markets start to dump is likely to be in the middle of the year when the Federal Reserve finally pivots on interest rates. Contrary to the narrative espoused, major market corrections have often followed a Fed pivot, so long as it occurs when the market isn't embroiled in GFC/COVID chaos.
The caveat to all this is that if the Chinese Communist Party were to collapse, because of a combination of Xi Jinping is an idiot and the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic inside China reveals itself to mankind as totally out of control, then everything that has been planned to break both bulls and bears alike will be sharply truncated by a 2,000 point Monday morning SPX gap down.
Gold, oil, natural gas, equities, bonds, everything will die like the FTX token did. Nothing will bounce.
It's very dangerous. It's very hard to avoid.
When people are "bullish on China," what they really mean is that they're bullish on the CCP. This is the hallmark of a total fool. Don't be that imbecile.
What a truly wise man does is to make as much cash as possible in lieu of the day that the evil Communist Party and its organ harvesting of Falun Gong and Uyghurs collapses.
That is the day you invest in "China" and its 5,000 years of dynasties, its traditional culture, and the Divine path.
If you can do that, you'll make Warren Buffett look like a blip on the radar in history.
For real.
I've heard over the last few weeks that the Chinese Communist Party has been buying tons and tons of gold, and this news has been used to drive the price back to that $1,923 ATH, which for many years, nobody thought would ever come again, and then happened again after COVID, and then was lost.
But you should always remember when a government and a central bank is in trouble, and the CCP is in significant trouble with the damage Wuhan Pneumonia and Xi Jinping's worthless "Zero COVID" social credit persecution of his own people has wrought to the Chinese economy, they tend to buy a lot of gold in an effort to make the situation look "totally great."
But gold is hard to trade for critical commodities like oil and food, and USD still reigns supreme, whether you like it or not.
Of all regimes, the worthless and wicked CCP is the one you want to trust the least. Really, those rogues are the ones you ought have so little faith in that you totally oppose them and cheer on their annihilation. Never forget these words: 'China' is not 'the CCP'.
Moreover, Washington/NATO are also not a big fan of Xi's control of the Party. When a whale takes a big speculative cash position, those who count as "Gods" are given an opportunity to dump it in the other direction, forcing their opponent to sell huge quantities of bullion at a loss.
Xi and his beloved CCP barely even count as whales at this point in history. They're about as much of a "whale" as Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX were.
Think that one over.
Moreover, Jim Cramer said in July of 2022 that gold "is one of three things that 'holds its value in a recession.'" Well, gold followed everything else to dump during 2020 COVID hysteria, and it lost 30% of its value during the '08 Financial Crisis too.
Here's the problem with gold making a new all-time high this easily:
1. When gold makes a new $2,100+ ATH, it should really take off for a "commodities supercycle" like wheat, copper, soy, corn did last year.
2. Gold's trading to the $1,630 range was merely a gap fill from the April COVID rebound run
3. $1,630 is still $100 above total long-term range equilibrium
3 (b). This means a new ATH now would indicate a stop raid followed by an eternal dump. Possible, but not very likely at this point in history.
What I believe will happen is this:
- Gold will run $1,940 - $1,960, sweeping breakout traders and goldbugs, and finally get hard rejected
- Gold will pretty much straight line dumpster fire towards a price that is worse than the $1,569 range equilibrium
- Nasdaq and tech stocks are going to rally so hard that some items like Tesla, Apple, and probably the index itself, are going to form a Bump and Run Reversal
- Commodities dump as equities are used to draw in "err'body" because they're the only thing going uppy since oil is dumpin'
- Gold will start to rally once the stocks that draw in retail dead money are topping and are being distributed
- Gold, oil, and natural gas will go hard as equities begin to languish and correct
- $3,100 gold will be the signal that every market has met its fated end
In terms of timing, the Bank of Japan does its monetary policy thing on Tuesday, and with how much Yen it has had to print to maintain the (all new) 0.50% cap on 10Y bonds, we can expect they will be forced to relax Yield Curve Control again, probably to 1%
Imo, this will cause markets to dump and arguably be choppy, but on the recovery/bull side heading into Feb. 1 FOMC.
Markets will feign "indecisive" until Feb. 1 FOMC, which is likely to be a 0.25% FFR hike, triggering a mega rally in equities, a rally which commodities stop tracking.
All of the above amounts to an exit rally for Japan's old money, which is a simply fundamental driver in the equities market as one of the most liquid populous seeks yield that its own central bank has refused for years to offer.
When the 10Y JGB yield is 1.5% Japanese money will leave US equities and start buying its own bonds. YCC will ultimately be relaxed way beyond 1.5%.
Once the markets start to dump is likely to be in the middle of the year when the Federal Reserve finally pivots on interest rates. Contrary to the narrative espoused, major market corrections have often followed a Fed pivot, so long as it occurs when the market isn't embroiled in GFC/COVID chaos.
The caveat to all this is that if the Chinese Communist Party were to collapse, because of a combination of Xi Jinping is an idiot and the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic inside China reveals itself to mankind as totally out of control, then everything that has been planned to break both bulls and bears alike will be sharply truncated by a 2,000 point Monday morning SPX gap down.
Gold, oil, natural gas, equities, bonds, everything will die like the FTX token did. Nothing will bounce.
It's very dangerous. It's very hard to avoid.
When people are "bullish on China," what they really mean is that they're bullish on the CCP. This is the hallmark of a total fool. Don't be that imbecile.
What a truly wise man does is to make as much cash as possible in lieu of the day that the evil Communist Party and its organ harvesting of Falun Gong and Uyghurs collapses.
That is the day you invest in "China" and its 5,000 years of dynasties, its traditional culture, and the Divine path.
If you can do that, you'll make Warren Buffett look like a blip on the radar in history.
For real.
註釋
Short Sunday because of the US holiday with the NYSE closed, but gold indeed ran the $1,923 psyop point before trading back.I'm honestly 60-40 as to whether or not gold just goes and makes a new ATH and then forever dumps or if it's arranged that commodities will cycle against equities.
註釋
This is more or less the moment of truth for whether Gold goes $2,400 with a Nasdaq pump or if it corrects for a few months for the purposes of supercycling later in the year.-Liquidity purge over $1,923 psyop point complete
-Coming up short of $1,950 psyop level is in play
註釋
The timing of an FOMC $1,973 pump followed by the BART candle (crypto algos manifest in gold?!) leads me to now strongly believe that metals correct while equities pump.註釋
Gold losing the $1,923 ATH and $1,900 after doing a crypto BART means you can't buy the dip.First target is $1,780. Imo, $1,550s by May.
註釋
Gold is definitely heading down. But has the MM set up to run back over the $1920 level with the gap at $1,930?I think this may be the plan.
註釋
Looks to me like gold will bounce now and I suspect the target is $1,920.Based on the fact that there were no real pivots to take on the way up and it only retraced into a mush of candles, the target could be $2,000, which might be bearish and it might be bullish.
註釋
I actually theorize right now that Gold is going to run $2,000.This was planned from the time it started running up, and hence why there's no anchor pivots on the way up for the algo to target.
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