黃金期貨

Recovery phase

29
Following a "Double Bottom," currently testing key resistance levels within a broader bullish context (indicated by the large green Ichimoku cloud).

The price has successfully reclaimed the 0.618 level (4,149.1). Holding above this level is crucial for the bullish thesis to continue.

The price is approaching the 0.786 level (4,193.5). A breakout here usually opens the door for a retest of the previous high.

If the price breaks the previous high (Level 1 at 4,250), the chart projects targets at the 1.272 extension (4,321.8) and the 1.618 extension (4,413.2).

The price is trading well above the Green Kumo (Cloud), which acts as a major dynamic support zone. This generally indicates a long-term bullish trend.

The Tenkan-Sen (Blue, 4,123.7) is currently below the Kijun-Sen (Red, 4,147.5), which is technically a weak signal. However, the current price (4,167) has moved above both lines, which is an early signal of renewed momentum. The status box at the bottom right notes "Status: Consolidation," likely waiting for the Tenkan to cross above the Kijun for a confirmed "Strong" buy signal.

A clear "Double Bottom" pattern formed around the 3,985 level (the 0 Fib line). This is a classic reversal pattern that provided the floor for the current rally.

There is an annotation for a "Bear Asc. Head and Shoulders." However, the price action has pushed up through the right shoulder, largely invalidating this bearish setup.

Current Move: A breakout from the consolidation zone between 4,080 and 4,150.

Short-Term Pullback: The projection anticipates a small dip or retest (likely bouncing off the 4,250 resistance initially).

Breakout: The projection implies a final surge breaking the 4,250 high, aiming for the Fibonacci extensions at 4,321 and 4,413.

Pivot/Support 4,149 (0.618 Fib) Must hold to maintain immediate bullish momentum.
Major Support 4,118 - 4,123 Confluence of 0.5 Fib and Tenkan-Sen. Loss of this level turns the trend neutral/bearish.
Key Resistance 4,193.5 The 0.786 Fib level; the next hurdle to clear.
Breakout Target 4,250 Previous High. Clearing this confirms the resumption of the macro uptrend.
Insight
The chart suggests a Bullish Bias. The "Double Bottom" provided a strong floor, and the price reclaiming the 0.618 Fibonacci level is a sign of strength. The primary risk is the "Consolidation", watch for the Tenkan-Sen (Blue line) to cross above the Kijun-Sen (Red line) to confirm the next leg up.

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