Gold is tilting to fall over...
已更新
Given my previous analyses, Gold kept to the mid-August high, attempted a breakout of the triangle and fell back in... which is bearish by nature telling of an exit point at the other (down) side. Since the media called the results of the US elections, the USD had been in a volatile flux, and so is Gold, albeit consolidating in a range nonetheless.
A close below 1860 will mean it’s going down quickly to 1750 to meet the 55EMA.
MACD is downtrending and suggests this scenario.
However, a drop to 1600 was projected previously, but the Relative Price Strength suggests that might be a bit further, if at all.
Many moving parts to this outlook...
1. Gold looks weak as technical breakout failed and expecting a fall out on the other end of the wedge.
2.MACD indicates, with Price RS weakening, and Net Non-Commercial Interest (orange line, lower panel) continue to wane while Top 8 traders start to go more net short (yellow line, lower panel).
3. Dependence on the USD strength only for downside risk. The recent USD weakness did nothing to Gold’s rally (for the first 2.5 weeks of November. However, the USD rebounding strength is likely to enhance Gold’s weakness to the downside.
4. Noted a surge in BTCUSD (Bitcoin) and some other selected Cryptocurrency. This looks like a leak in the money flow system where and “alternative gold” is favored due to the lack of Risk-On.
Watch out for Gold in the near term downside risk.
It will come back but needs a good pullback, as it usually does.
A close below 1860 will mean it’s going down quickly to 1750 to meet the 55EMA.
MACD is downtrending and suggests this scenario.
However, a drop to 1600 was projected previously, but the Relative Price Strength suggests that might be a bit further, if at all.
Many moving parts to this outlook...
1. Gold looks weak as technical breakout failed and expecting a fall out on the other end of the wedge.
2.MACD indicates, with Price RS weakening, and Net Non-Commercial Interest (orange line, lower panel) continue to wane while Top 8 traders start to go more net short (yellow line, lower panel).
3. Dependence on the USD strength only for downside risk. The recent USD weakness did nothing to Gold’s rally (for the first 2.5 weeks of November. However, the USD rebounding strength is likely to enhance Gold’s weakness to the downside.
4. Noted a surge in BTCUSD (Bitcoin) and some other selected Cryptocurrency. This looks like a leak in the money flow system where and “alternative gold” is favored due to the lack of Risk-On.
Watch out for Gold in the near term downside risk.
It will come back but needs a good pullback, as it usually does.
註釋
And, we have BREAK DOWN!as expected...
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