Description:
GC is currently trading within a high-probability inflection zone defined by confluence between structural demand, a well-defined fair value gap, and multi-timeframe descending trend line resistance. The asset is compressing between key volume thresholds and macro trend lines, presenting a binary scenario with favourable asymmetry in either direction.
Context & Market Structure
Chart Basis: 4H
Instruments Used:
GC1! (COMEX Gold August 2025 Futures)
20 & 50 EMA for short-term dynamic structure
Manual markups: S/D zones, FVGs, trendlines
Session Data: NY session highs/lows (previous day)
Key Technical Elements
Descending Trendline (Macro):
Initiated from swing high on July 5th, currently acting as dynamic resistance. Confirmed via 3+ touchpoints. Linear regression indicates slope remains intact.
Rising Trend line (Structural Support):
Originates from June 26th low supporting current bullish attempts. Intersection with demand and session low adds weight to this level.
Demand Zone (3280–3286):
Structurally valid with absorption wicks and bullish reaction. Volume clusters indicate localized buyer interest. Rejecting this zone twice already.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) (3297–3304):
Formed post-impulsive leg. Statistically, ~78% of FVGs in gold futures are filled within 2 sessions when no continuation candle follows which is the current setup.
Supply Zone (3314–3318):
Defined from previous consolidation pre-selloff. Aligns with ORB high + unfilled inefficiency, creating layered resistance.
Previous NY Session Levels:
High: 3310.0
Low: 3277.5
Price trading midpoint of this range increased probability of expansion after compression.
Scenario Mapping
Bullish Scenario:
Trigger: Break and 15-min hold above 3305
Validation: Acceptance into FVG zone + reclaim of previous session high
Target: 3316–3320 (supply zone + inefficiency fill)
Extended Target: 3334 swing high (mean reversion area)
Bearish Scenario:
Trigger: Breakdown below 3277.5 session low
Validation: Failure to reclaim demand zone; increased volume on breakdown
Target: 3250 (local HVN & previous accumulation node)
Extended Target: 3227 structural low (trend continuation)
Bias Model:
Volatility Compression: 3-day ATR declining; tightening range.
Mean Reversion Probability (MPR): 58% if price returns to mid-FVG before rejection.
Expansion Probability (EXP): 64% post-session high/low sweep.
Trend Alignment Bias: Bearish until > 3305 is sustained. Below 3280, short bias accelerates.
Summary:
GC1! is currently in compression between confirmed demand and a clean FVG/supply stack, with trend lines boxing in price from both directions. A breakout from this tri-zone structure is statistically likely in the next session. I remain neutral-biased with actionable directional triggers above 3305 or below 3277.
Not a market to guess, wait for confirmation. High-quality setups require patience at the edge of structure.
Staakd Rating: ★★★★☆ (4.6/5)
GC is currently trading within a high-probability inflection zone defined by confluence between structural demand, a well-defined fair value gap, and multi-timeframe descending trend line resistance. The asset is compressing between key volume thresholds and macro trend lines, presenting a binary scenario with favourable asymmetry in either direction.
Context & Market Structure
Chart Basis: 4H
Instruments Used:
GC1! (COMEX Gold August 2025 Futures)
20 & 50 EMA for short-term dynamic structure
Manual markups: S/D zones, FVGs, trendlines
Session Data: NY session highs/lows (previous day)
Key Technical Elements
Descending Trendline (Macro):
Initiated from swing high on July 5th, currently acting as dynamic resistance. Confirmed via 3+ touchpoints. Linear regression indicates slope remains intact.
Rising Trend line (Structural Support):
Originates from June 26th low supporting current bullish attempts. Intersection with demand and session low adds weight to this level.
Demand Zone (3280–3286):
Structurally valid with absorption wicks and bullish reaction. Volume clusters indicate localized buyer interest. Rejecting this zone twice already.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) (3297–3304):
Formed post-impulsive leg. Statistically, ~78% of FVGs in gold futures are filled within 2 sessions when no continuation candle follows which is the current setup.
Supply Zone (3314–3318):
Defined from previous consolidation pre-selloff. Aligns with ORB high + unfilled inefficiency, creating layered resistance.
Previous NY Session Levels:
High: 3310.0
Low: 3277.5
Price trading midpoint of this range increased probability of expansion after compression.
Scenario Mapping
Bullish Scenario:
Trigger: Break and 15-min hold above 3305
Validation: Acceptance into FVG zone + reclaim of previous session high
Target: 3316–3320 (supply zone + inefficiency fill)
Extended Target: 3334 swing high (mean reversion area)
Bearish Scenario:
Trigger: Breakdown below 3277.5 session low
Validation: Failure to reclaim demand zone; increased volume on breakdown
Target: 3250 (local HVN & previous accumulation node)
Extended Target: 3227 structural low (trend continuation)
Bias Model:
Volatility Compression: 3-day ATR declining; tightening range.
Mean Reversion Probability (MPR): 58% if price returns to mid-FVG before rejection.
Expansion Probability (EXP): 64% post-session high/low sweep.
Trend Alignment Bias: Bearish until > 3305 is sustained. Below 3280, short bias accelerates.
Summary:
GC1! is currently in compression between confirmed demand and a clean FVG/supply stack, with trend lines boxing in price from both directions. A breakout from this tri-zone structure is statistically likely in the next session. I remain neutral-biased with actionable directional triggers above 3305 or below 3277.
Not a market to guess, wait for confirmation. High-quality setups require patience at the edge of structure.
Staakd Rating: ★★★★☆ (4.6/5)
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