GNO short term ~31% increase

BITTREX:GNOBTC   Gnosis / Bitcoin
Chart says it all. Even color coded it. If BTC             drops further, expect GNO to test/break support. ~44% return if it bounces off support. ~55% return if it bounces off the channel floor. For those who are learning/wanting to know how I trade short term: Of the funds I've diverted for this trade, 40% will go in now, 30% more if it hits support, remaining 30% at the channel floor. If it never tests support then I have 60% to reallocate elsewhere. There's always more opportunities on the horizon. Unlike those who put their money in first, I publish my ideas then eat my own cooking. Invest responsibly and best wishes.
交易進行: As planned, I immediately put two 20% buys into GNO after posting this idea at .02359 and .02356. I then set 30% buy limits that did not execute at the support and channel floor so I'm only 40% into this one and that's ok. I removed the channel floor buy limit and I'll keep the support limit in place until it's obvious GNO is not reversing OR I find a better place to put that money with greater certainty of a similar return. As for timeline, it depends on volume. Right now it's below the moving average and while we're pretty much exactly on the green line where we need to be, I'd like to see it increase a little more before surging to the channel ceiling. My WAG (wild ass guess) is that we'll be at the ceiling/target in 24-48 hours. To exit the trade I like to keep it simple: 50% of the holdings get sold over a few trades +/- 2-5% of target, the other 50% I play by ear. If volume is strong I always start my exit at target then finish the first 50% in 1% increments up to 5%. I may let the remaining 50% ride until the first peak selloff then decide how I'll sell the rest depending on the recovery. If volume slows down when approaching target I'll begin the exit early (-5%) and will try to sell it all near target as much as possible. Any trade that ends with profit is a good trade, however I missed XRP's logic defying rocket to $3+ when I sold out at $1.50 and $1.80. I don't believe GNO is going to pull an XRP by any stretch but in this space, anything is possible.

Simple ROI calculation: Avg buy price of .023575 with target of .0322 = .008625 of profit divided by org. purchase price of .023575 = ~37% return over the next 24-48 hours. If you were to get in now at .0254, ROI = ~27% in the same timeframe.
交易進行: Amazing what a little (or in this case a LOT) of volume can do. I was getting ready to update the ROI for current pricing and before I could get my calculator the volume I was asking for came early. Looks like the time frame is shortened considerably. *At this rate* we'll be at target within an hour or two if not sooner. It's amazing how quickly tides can change when people see the momentum and pour fuel on the fire. Here's how I would trade this surge given the accelerated timeline. First off, I'm repurposing my buy limit and using it to buy at market price. At ~0.028 that's about 15% in the next hour or two (volume pending of course) which is plenty good (hint hint for those of you who haven't come in yet). Most surges last between 1-2 hours. If target of .0322 is hit in the first hour, I'm not selling until we're 1.25 - 1.75 hours in. Same exit strategy applies, I'm just adjusting for the sudden momentum. Full disclosure: I am not as disciplined as people think/I sound and sometimes it looks like I break my own rules. Yup, I do. But there's special exceptions for me: it's ok to deviate in a bull run because no matter what I do at this point exit-wise, I'm profitable. The only way I lose here is if I hold until the price drops below what I bought in for then sell it which will never happen with the profitable stoplosses I've set (or it's reaaaaally improbable for me to lose money if we're being technical). I believe adaptability is one of the most important traits for most if not all areas of life and is especially necessary when day/swing trading cryptocurrencies.
評論: I benefited by writing that blurb before making my buys because it came back down and I was able to get equal sized buys in at .0265 and .02624 (~22% avg ROI at .0322 target) and now I'm *waiting* for any additional buys because GNO's price is shadowing BTC/LTC, at least at first sign of sharp movement. If you watch what those two are doing (I always keep two browser windows open and viewable at all times to see the depth chart/candles for GDAX's BTC & LTC). Momentum is starting to pick up again and while it's above average, it's clearly not the same as it was when I wrote the last update half an hour ago when BTC/LTC started the dive to $14k/$240. Unless it resumes to a high level (which I think won't happen) I'm back to my original exit strategy. See? I change the rules all the time because... adaptability.

I don't want to flood your feeds so this will be my last update until this is closed out. BTW, ROI at current price of .028 is ~15% (same as last post) and ETA to target at current volume is probably within 6-12 hours but there's a lot that can happen to speed that up or put it back on the original 24-48 hour estimate.
Nice chart, I came up with a similar chart on the 7th giving the same target and time frame. Worth noting that the next target coincides well with the 1.618
Well done!
@SJay17, Thank you for pointing that out. There's no such thing as certainty with any investment/trade but the more indicators/signs that point to where it appears to go allows for greater confidence when making a decision to buy or sell.
Very concise and detailed analysis. Once again thanks. I am in with you seeing resistance at 0.255 waiting for the break at approx 0.026.

Also have you looked at the FUEL chart ? Thanks
Regera PRO slfmd4life
@slfmd4life, I just looked at the FUEL chart. Get a time machine and go back about 2 hours to catch the last wave. Nice ~22% pop for those who were in it.
@Regera, up 30 points. Was in it for a while ! Thanks
+1 回覆
What is the time frame ?
Regera PRO RaviNaik
@RaviNaik, I'd estimate 24-48 hours from this post depending on volume.
Thank you for your analysis. Really like your comments and philosophy. Thanks
Regera PRO slfmd4life
@slfmd4life, My pleasure. We're all in this together and I wish you much prosperity and good health with this trade and many more in the future.
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