The trade war is shrouded in a cloud, and the US economic outloo

Recently, Federal Reserve policymakers have spoken out one after another, reiterating the need to remain cautious in formulating monetary policy, while the trade war launched by US President Trump has cast a thick fog over the economic outlook. The inflationary pressure caused by tariff policies, the risk of slowing economic growth, and subtle changes in the job market are putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma in interest rate decisions.

Tariff policies trigger multiple effects
The tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration has brought significant uncertainty to the US economy. The impact of tariffs is still unclear, which may lead to a one-time increase in prices or lay the foundation for more lasting inflationary pressure.
Hidden concerns in the job market
The latest "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey" (JOLTS) report released by the US Department of Labor shows that both job vacancies and layoffs increased in April. Faced with the uncertainty of tariff policies, many US companies have fallen into a wait-and-see state and tend to hoard labor. Companies will only change this strategy when they confirm that the risk of recession has risen significantly.
Inflation dispute:
Differences of opinion within the Federal Reserve
There are different views within the Federal Reserve on the impact of tariffs on inflation. Some policymakers, such as Fed Governor Waller, tend to believe that the price increase caused by tariffs is a one-time shock, and the Fed can choose to ignore its short-term impact and continue to push forward the interest rate cut plan before the end of the year.
The next meeting is highly anticipated
The Fed is expected to maintain the target range of the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% at its policy meeting on June 17-18. The market generally expects that the Fed will pay close attention to data on inflation, unemployment and economic growth to assess the overall impact of the trade war on the economy.
Summary: The Fed's balancing act and the fog of economic prospects
The Fed is at a delicate crossroads. On the one hand, policymakers hope to leave room for dealing with the uncertainty brought about by the trade war by maintaining patience and flexibility; on the other hand, inflationary pressures, changes in the job market and the risk of slowing economic growth are posing challenges to the formulation of monetary policy. At this time full of variables, the Fed's caution and balance are particularly critical. XAUUSD GOLD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD