two forecast scenarios will happen next week start at July 21 25

# 🟡 XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) - Market Outlook
**Date:** July 19, 2025
**Instrument:** CFD on Spot Gold
**Symbol:** XAU/USD
**Timeframe:** Intraday & Swing Focus
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## 📊 Technical Analysis

### 🔹 Current Price Action:
- **Price:** ~$3,351 per ounce
- **Bias:** Bullish continuation with potential retracement

### 🔸 Key Levels:
| Level | Type | Description |
|--------------|--------------|-----------------------------------|
| 3,435 - 3,442| Resistance | Multi-day top + Fib extension |
| 3,400 | Pivot | Round number + psychological zone |
| 3,384 | Support 1 | Last pullback low |
| 3,368 | Support 2 | MA confluence zone |
| 3,345 - 3,350| Strong base | Weekly structural support |

### 📈 Structure & Pattern:
- Series of **higher highs and higher lows**
- Sharp **rally during NY session**, consolidation during Asia/London
- Strong **liquidity sweep** under 3,384 followed by impulsive recovery

### 📍 Bias:
> **Bullish** above 3,384
> Potential short-term pullback toward 3,384 – 3,368 = buying opportunity
> Watch for breakout and hold above 3,435 for extension toward 3,470+

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## 🌐 Fundamental Analysis

### 📰 Macro Drivers:
| Factor | Impact on Gold | Notes |
|-----------------------------|----------------|------------------------------------------------|
| **US Dollar (DXY)** | ⬇️ Bullish for Gold | DXY rejected 104.50; retracing |
| **Bond Yields** | ⬇️ Bullish | US 10Y below 4.15%; easing pressure |
| **Fed Policy (FOMC)** | 📉 Bullish | Market pricing 65% chance of rate cut by Sep |
| **Geopolitical Risks** | 🆙 Bullish | Middle East tension + Russian escalation |
| **Gold ETF Demand** | ⬆️ Bullish | Net inflows continue (strong hedge appetite) |

### 🛑 Risks to Bullish View:
- Sudden USD strength recovery
- Fed speakers turning hawkish unexpectedly
- Aggressive short-term profit-taking near ATH

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## 🎯 Summary Outlook:
> Gold remains in a **strong uptrend** with healthy corrections.
> As long as price holds above **3,384**, dips are buyable.
> Targeting 3,442+ short term and 3,470-3,500 for swing traders.

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## 🧭 Strategy Suggestion:
- ✅ **Buy on dip** toward 3,384–3,368 zone
- ❌ Avoid chasing breakouts unless confirmed on NY open
- 🔁 Watch for liquidity traps and fakeouts under 3,384

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⏱️ *Updated by: Persiaux King 👑*
*Trade the plan, trust the flow 💛*