Gold Trend 19/07 - 24/07 (Review Daily)

已更新

Gold retreated further last Friday. The market opened near 1829 early in the Asian session and the selling has continued throughout the day. After the price broke the support line(1) at the European session, it has gone straight to the 1815-18 support area. The price then rebounded at the US session opening, but it has broken the 1815 support(2) before the day's ended at 1810, down by USD18.

The buying momentum failed to carry on since it touched the 1-month high at 1834 last Thursday. The price is now once again trading below 1815 and it has completely escaped the S-T upward triangle pattern(1), the uptrend originated from July 12th is now officially finished. Back to the horizontal 1790-1815 range, the resistance zone at 1815-1818 is once again valid, but the selling pressure should have reduced after the price experienced 1830 last week. If the price breaks the key support at 1810(3.1) today, it should be able to further consolidate toward 1800 or lower; on the other hand, if the market remains stable in the coming 24 hours, it should trade between the newly formed triangle pattern(3).

From a long-term perspective on the 1-hr chart, an M-T uptrend has started from 1750 and touched 1834 last week. If the price breaks the M-T support line (4), the price will turn even weaker in short term.

A reversal signal has now formed since it touched 1834 last Thursday. If the gold price stays below 1815 in the next 24 hours, it will confirm to be back to the 1795-1815 range-bound on the daily chart. The price may touch again the downside 1795-1800.

S-T Resistances:
1825
1818-20
1815

Market Price: 1812

S-T Supports:
1810
1805
1800

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註釋

Gold rallied from the 1-week low yesterday. It opened at 1810, and it has started to slide after it touched the early high near 1815 in the Asian session. The price hit day-low 1795 at the US session opening and rebounded quickly back to day high. The market ended near 1812, up slightly by USD 2.

The price movement was in line with our expectations yesterday. Once it has broken the support at 1810(1), the price went all the way to the bottom of the range near 1795. Although the rebound happened rapidly at the US session, the price has traded within 1790-1815 overall. The gold price has been testing the 1815-18 resistance(3) in the Asian session today. If the price is able to clear the 1818 resistance, the next key price level will be the S-T resistance line(2); once line(2) is cleared, the price should be able to reach 1835 again or even a new high this time. But before that happen, 1790-1815 remains the range, and the resistance zone 1815-18 will still be in effect.

The M-T trend line (4) has been breached & the retracement targets(5) are both achieved. The uptrend that originated from the end of June is now over, expect the price to run in the zone (6) for now.

The rally(7) yesterday has formed a sign of bull on the daily chart, the buying momentum should be able to push the price to 1830 or higher, The 5 days MA is the resistance for now.

S-T Resistances:
1825
1818-20
1815

Market Price: 1814

S-T Supports:
1810
1805
1800

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P. To

註釋

The gold price slipped sharply at the US session yesterday. At the market opening yesterday, it has carried the buying momentum from the day before, the price tested the 1815-18 resistance zone a few times during the Asian & European sessions. The break to the upside happened at the US session opening. The price cleared both the 1815-18 resistance zone and the S-T resistance line(1), touched day-high at 1825. But the momentum failed to maintain, shortly after it has peaked, selling orders were triggered by the breaching of the support line(1) and 1815. The price has gone all the way to day-low 1804, with the day ended at 1807, down slightly by USD 2.

The gold market has been choppy during the US trading sessions in the past 2 days. As time went by, the resistance between 1815-18 has further been reduced, but the resistance at 1818 will still affect the price movement. Price is now standing above the S-T support line(2) on the 1-hr chart and the newly formed resistance line(4) should be a key resistance for today.

The lower shadow line(4) from the rally the day before has basically been neutralized by the pullback yesterday(5). Since the price has escaped the upward support(6) originated from June 30, a horizontal range of 1795-1825 is preliminarily being set up after the last 2 days of trading.

S-T Resistances:
1825
1818-20
1815

Market price: 1814

S-T Supports:
1810
1805
1800

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P. To

註釋

Gold rallied from the weekly low yesterday. The price traded between 1805-10 throughout the Asian session. It has touched day-high 1813 right before the European session opening, and the fall began. Once it broke the S-T supports line(1), the price has gone all the way to 1795. The day ended at 1804, down slightly by USD3.

The structure has changed much on the 1-hour chart. As mentioned at the beginning of the week, the price is now back to the horizontal range of 1790-1815(2). After the price supported at 1795 yesterday, the bottom of the range will now change to 1795. Once again, for the upside, if the price crosses the S-T resistance line(1), it should again revisit the top of the range.

The trend remains within 1795-1825(5) on the daily chart, and the price is currently supported by the 20 days MA. The daily market closing price has been staying within 1802-1813(6) for the past few trading days. It will be the initial step for a trend shifting if the daily closing price ends outside of zone(6).

S-T Resistances:
1810
1805
1800

Market Price: 1798

S-T Supports:
1794-5
1790
1785

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P. To

註釋

Gold traded within a tight USD 15 range yesterday. The price broke the 1800 support early in the Asian session and has fallen all the way to the day-low near 1795 during the European session. The rebound to day-high has begun once the US session became active. The market ended at 1806, up slightly by USD2.

Nothing has changed so far in the 1-hr chart, the price is still maintaining its path within 1795-1815(4). Since the price has failed to break the bottom of 1795 in the past 2 days, S-T buying momentum begins to accumulate. If the price breaks the current S-T resistance at 1807(2), it should be able to touch again the top of the trading range. Notice, the downward resistance line(3)is still valid.

The daily closing prices are still bounded by a tighter range of 1802-1813 on the daily. Until it breaks this pattern, the gold price should continue to trade in the 1795-1825 zone.

S-T Resistances:
1815
1810
1807

Market price: 1804

S-T supports:
1800
1795
1790

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P. To