Market next move

1. Over-Reliance on Support Zone

The analysis heavily leans on the assumption that the support zone (marked with the purple "Support" label) will hold.

However, this support has already been tested multiple times, which weakens its strength.

A break below this zone could trigger significant stop-loss hunting, leading to a bearish breakdown instead of a bullish reversal.


2. Volume Analysis Suggests Weak Momentum

The recent bounce lacks strong volume. This suggests that buying interest is not convincing at this level.

Without volume confirmation, any bullish move is less likely to sustain.


3. Lower Highs Pattern

Despite small rallies, the chart is forming lower highs, which is typically a bearish signal.

This hints at seller dominance, and the yellow bullish projection might be overly optimistic.


4. Resistance Overhead

The price is approaching a short-term resistance zone (red box), which has rejected the price previously.

Without a clear breakout above that, the bullish case is speculative.


5. Fundamental Factors Unaccounted

The chart doesn’t account for macro factors like U.S. dollar strength, interest rates, or geopolitical influences that often affect gold.

If the dollar strengthens, gold may drop, breaking the support.