Mixed signals on Gold / Selling bias seems strongly limited

2021年8月19日

Technical analysis: As discussed, the Daily chart’s RSI was on Neutral levels but in fact lately (#10 session horizon), just away in points form the March’s bottom of #30.00. Typically when the RSI hits these levels it finds Buyers and that has been so consistent since the August #2018 market bottom. The downside potential is #1,678.80 - #1,700.80, while on Medium and Long-term, #1,578.80 is surely on the cards. Like I mentioned, the trend is still Neutral (very mixed signals on Gold as DX is Trading above the Resistance on constant High's which are Bought back instantly since start of the Trading week, counterbalanced by Yields near Lower Low extension), and will only reverse Bearish if the current Weekly candle ends in losses (Breaking the #1,760.80 Support), which presently has slim chances. Gold has rallied in #2020, rising to the highest level in #6 Years, as Investors contemplate slowing economic growth, prospects for easier monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe and festering Trade frictions. With that being said, I will not consider Buying anymore (regarding Medium-term) and will only turn to Selling Gold on Medium-term (unless #1,796.80 breaks first). The downswing on Gold has been given added momentum as Interest rates are going so Low, particularly at the moment. Ahead on Short-term regarding Gold, I expect Neutral consolidation and personally, Hourly 4 chart’s #1,812.80 + test, as Fed aftermath always attracts Bulls traditionally, and aggressive takedown towards #1,752.80 Medium-term Support.


My position: As FOMC meeting didn't delivered what I was expecting, DX remained strong even though Bearish Gap fill which was instantly Bought back (firm ground for Buying extension, as FOMC traditionally attracts Buyers), I have moved my Stop-loss #7 points away from my entry (to prevent unexpected scenarios over-night), in addition, it got hit and my outlook was invalidated. As I don't expect much action from today's session (less likely to reveal a major move), I will remain on sidelines and call it for the session.