Gold on Short-term crossroads

2022年10月7日

Technical analysis: As expected I got the Higher High's Lower zone priced in within #1,727.80 - #1,734.80 zone above the Daily chart consolidation area, and as a result, having red Daily chart's candle so far throughout today’s session. Like I mentioned, the Williams% is on the same level as it was on the January #30 Top (Higher High's) and what followed after was an aggressive # -2.70% decline. However as long as Gold don't break #1,700.80 mark (Hourly 1 chart's Support), I can't confirm the sequence similarity but as the DX is recovering and the Bond Yields finally found the Support, there are strong probabilities. Market remains under very cautious setting and proof of that is Price-action Trading within #5-point belt for #2-Hour horizon. This indicates how #6-consecutive session parabolic rise was purely related to fear (DX losing with every Daily chart's candle) and what the Gold market does right now is attempting to find an equilibrium. If it wasn't for this (# -0.23%) decline on DX, Gold would be considerably Lower. As expected the Hourly 1 chart's Resistance of #1,721.80 is close and currently holding, so I will use it as an additional Selling opportunity if it holds. Personally I remain Bearish on the Medium-term as with the DX near the Resistance levels and Bond Yields pricing its pullback affecting Gold strongly, every move upwards will have disproportionately Bearish impact on Gold.


My position: I have slowly started closing my Selling orders and now will await NFP outcome as market awaits the announcement numbers to decide where to next. By my estimations, Short-term trend is yet to be revealed and the next move ahead will be strong. If DX continues the sequence and #1,700.80 mark breaks, #1,652.80 will be next Target for Sellers to pursue. On the other hand, market closing above #1,727.80 extension may arise Buyers which may push the Price-action towards #1,742.80 sequence (less likely). Most viable plan at the moment is to Trade the breakout and observe market closing.