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Gold Weekly Analysis: Gold needs war, not only sanctions.

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Gold dropped sharply after testing its nearly multi-year high level of 1974/ounce. However, XAU/USD started positively at the begging of the last week but closed in a negative biased.

But technically, as long as gold is above the $1850/1835 price zone, it will remain still bullish. The gold market yet has thousands of reasons to go upside.

When the Russia-Ukraine crisis started, gold went up because investors expected NATO and Russia to conflict. Still, the USA and Europe just gave sanctions against Russia but didn't announce direct war with Russia.

But market expected direct war against Russia. Though that didn't happen yet, the NATO countries are involved with Russia-Ukraine issues slowly. And eventually, NATO countries conflict with Russia very soon because the Russia-Ukraine war involves the security and self-respect of America and Europe.

If Russia occupies Ukraine, NATO will be considered a failed organization. Although Ukraine is not yet a member of NATO, many may say that NATO countries cannot wage war directly against Russia.

It will be just an excuse and a strategy to cover up the failure. Because of the encouragement and provocation of NATO, Ukraine has shown courage and confidence. So the defeat of Ukraine means the defeat of NATO to Russia.

I am not a war expert, but as a market analyst, I think investors not only expected a blockade on Russia, but they expected a big war. But since that did not happen, the gold market has undergone a significant correction, and as a result, gold has dropped.

Russia has been expelled from Swift. As a result, all countries that do business with Russia will be in more or less trouble. There is no doubt that essential commodities like gas, oil, and wheat will increase.

Many countries in the Middle East depend on wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Many European countries are dependent on Russian gas and oil. So it is very typical for the commodity market to become turbulent. And since Russia has been ousted from Swift, there is no doubt that they will lean towards a cross-border interbank payment system, gold, or bitcoin to keep the economy afloat.

So I think even if the gold price dropped last week, it would increase from next week. Not only the gold price, but I also do not doubt that the blockade on Russia will increase the price of gold and commodities like bitcoin, oil, and wheat.

Technical Analysis:

Technically as long as gold is above the trendline support zone of $1850/1835 price zone, it will remain uptrend.

From the present rates, $1875/1870 is immediate resistance. Breaking below $1870 will open the door for the $1835/1850 price zone.

Again, we may see a big buy from the $1850/1835 price zone. The buying bias may start from the immediate support level of the $1870/1875 price zone.

But, breaking below $1835 may invalidate the uptrend and may continue downtrend in the long term.

If the gold price bounces from its immediate support or buys limit zone, our first target to the upside is $1915. Breaking above $1915 will open the door for the $1960/1975 price zone. And the final target to the upside is above $2000.

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註釋

We have updated our gold chart and analysis. Please check it out here.