GOLD 4H - Key Reversal or Breakout Incoming ?

It’s been an incredible run for GOLD leading up to this point, however we are now currently testing a major inflection zone around the $3,369–$3,414 level (R1-R2), intersecting both a bearish supply zone and descending trendline resistance. Price thus far has been riding a strong bullish trendline from mid-May, forming a clean ascending structure.

We’re now at a decision point:
• Bullish scenario: If price breaks above the 33669 (R1) & $3414 (R2) levels and holds, we could see a sharp move toward the ATH at $3,500. This would confirm trendline support and invalidate the supply zone.
• Bearish scenario: A rejection here could break the trendline and send gold back down to $3,280 (S1), with deeper targets around $3,205 (S2) if momentum accelerates.

MACD looks like it’s losing momentum and volume has been drying up a bit on this leg higher, possibly hinting at bullish exhaustion up here.

Considering the big picture context: FED rate cuts loom further out now with inflation still sticky, which puts pressure on gold short term. But longer term, central bank demand + global economic uncertainty still keeps the bias tilted bullish overall.

Position: OPEN
I still have my long position open from $3205ish however I did trim some on Friday and currently waiting for confirmation, it’s either a breakout & retest to the upside or a clean breakdown of the ascending trend line for shorts.

Daily / 4hr time frames are key here, watch for a close above or below for confirmation.

Let the market show its hand.

All the best dear traders and good luck for the week ahead !