GOLD : Is gold preparing to test a breakout?
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The downward pressure on gold prices increased further due to rising US government bond yields. This yield has increased from 5-7 bps across all bond terms. A recent five-year US Treasury bond auction showed positive results, with bids from non-dealer investors exceeding the average.
Recent statements by Fed officials have also further influenced market sentiment. Fed Governor Lisa Cook acknowledged progress in curbing inflation and the labor market is gradually cooling, but she did not give a specific time to reduce interest rates. Meanwhile, Fed Board of Governors Member Michelle Bowman stated that now is not the time to start cutting interest rates, even suggesting the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation persists.
These developments come just ahead of the important PCE index report, scheduled for release on Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal predicted consumer prices would fall last month. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to hit its lowest level since March 2021.
If the PCE report matches forecasts, this could suggest inflation is on track toward the Fed's goals. This could encourage the Fed to consider reducing its benchmark interest rate as early as September, despite recent hawkish statements from some Fed officials.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell previously emphasized the need for greater confidence in economic data before making policy adjustments. The positive PCE report could mark the start of the "string of positive economic data" the Fed is looking for, potentially paving the way for an earlier rate cut than Cook and Bowman suggested. recently released.
The combination of a strong USD, rising yields and mixed signals from Fed officials continue to create a difficult environment for gold prices in the short term. However, the upcoming PCE report could significantly influence the Fed's future policy decisions, and therefore market sentiment towards gold.
Recent statements by Fed officials have also further influenced market sentiment. Fed Governor Lisa Cook acknowledged progress in curbing inflation and the labor market is gradually cooling, but she did not give a specific time to reduce interest rates. Meanwhile, Fed Board of Governors Member Michelle Bowman stated that now is not the time to start cutting interest rates, even suggesting the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation persists.
These developments come just ahead of the important PCE index report, scheduled for release on Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal predicted consumer prices would fall last month. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to hit its lowest level since March 2021.
If the PCE report matches forecasts, this could suggest inflation is on track toward the Fed's goals. This could encourage the Fed to consider reducing its benchmark interest rate as early as September, despite recent hawkish statements from some Fed officials.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell previously emphasized the need for greater confidence in economic data before making policy adjustments. The positive PCE report could mark the start of the "string of positive economic data" the Fed is looking for, potentially paving the way for an earlier rate cut than Cook and Bowman suggested. recently released.
The combination of a strong USD, rising yields and mixed signals from Fed officials continue to create a difficult environment for gold prices in the short term. However, the upcoming PCE report could significantly influence the Fed's future policy decisions, and therefore market sentiment towards gold.
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