Gold (XAUUSD) — Technical and Fundamental Analysis 2H

Technical Outlook

On the 4H chart, gold is forming a rising structure and is currently trading near the 3236–3260 resistance zone, aligned with the 1.272 Fibonacci extension. This area is expected to act as a short-term cap, with a potential corrective move ahead.

🔹 Key Levels:

Resistance: 3236, 3260
Support: 3132–3140 (trendline), 3082 (horizontal zone)

🔹 Formations:

Potential retracement setup after an extended impulse
Expected correction toward 3132–3140 (rising trendline)
If support holds, price may resume the uptrend toward 3308 (1.414 Fibonacci extension)

🔹 Indicators:

RSI near overbought zone
MACD shows momentum weakening
EMA 50/200 continue to support the bullish trend

Fundamental Drivers

Inflation concerns and soft landing expectations support safe-haven flows
Market is pricing in potential Fed rate cuts in H2 2025
Central banks continue to accumulate gold reserves
Dollar weakness provides additional support for gold prices

Scenario

Base case:
Rejection at 3236–3260 → pullback to 3132–3140 → continuation toward 3308
Alternative:
Break above 3260 → direct move to 3308.
Break below 3132 → possible slide toward 3082.