Gold Trend 14/02 - 18/02

已更新

Gold surged to a near 3-months peak last Friday. The price was basically traded between 1822-35(1) early in the Asian/European sessions. Until after the mid-US session, gold has broken out from the key 1835 resistance(2) and has gone all the way to 1865. The day ended near 1858, up by USD 32.

The trading in the Asian/European sessions was in line with our expectations last Friday, however, the jump before the day's end was unexpected, and it was mainly caused by the speech of the US president about Ukraine's tension and the lack of market participants in the late Friday trading. Unless the war breaks out in Ukraine later on today, the risk premium for the weekend should ease off back from 2 days of market closure. Expect consolidation in S-T with the range set in between 1843-65(3).

Gold has broken out from the resistance line(6) on the daily chart and touched the previous peak at 1865. If there is no further news breakout today, technically, the price should stay between 1850-68(5) in S-T. In M-T/L-T, expect the price to form a triangle pattern(7) for now, unless the price can clear all the resistance near 1868.

S-T Resistance:
1868
1860
1857

Market price: 1852

S-T Supports:
1850
1843
1835

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註釋

Gold surged further yesterday. The price was basically bounded by the 1850-57 range early in the Asian and European. It crossed the key resistance 1868(1) late in the US session. It reached a new high near1873 with the day ending at 1873, up by USD 12.

Gold has kept its momentum upward since it broke the 1843 resistance last Friday. The gold market should stay bullish. The range should maintain within 1868-80(3) in early sessions, if it breaks 1880, the upside target can be set at 1900.

Gold has cleared the resistance at 1896(6) yesterday on the daily chart, and the price is now tingling in the resistance zone(4) from the previous peak. As long as the price is able to stay above 1868 today, the triangle pattern mentioned yesterday will be breached. The upside target will be at 1890(5) to the upside.

S-T Resistances:
1900
1890
1880

Market Price: 1878

S-T Supports:
1870-68
1865
1860

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註釋

Gold slipped away from the 8-month high yesterday. The market opened at 1870, and the price has reached the new high 1979 early in the Asian session. As Ukraine tensions eased, the price started to pull back. It slid all the way to the day low at 1843 right before the US session. The trade has maintained its range between 1846-55 before the day ended at 1853.

The gold price has retreated right away, breaking the key support 1868(1),
once the news was released about Ukraine tensions easing. Expect the trend to turn downward after yesterday. 1943-61(2) can be set as the range for the early trading session. If the price break 1843, the price will go back to 1821(4) level on the downside.

The M-T triangle pattern(6) on the daily chart is remaining in place as the price has failed to clear the resistance zone(4) and to stay above 1868 after all. The drop yesterday created a reversal signal on the chart. The momentum should begin to shift downward, the trend line (7) should be able to provide support in S-T.

S-T Resistances:
1868
1860
1857

Market price: 1852

S-T Supports:
1850
1843
1835

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註釋

Gold rebounded USD 16 yesterday. The day began near 1853, and the price has been range-bound between 1851-57 early in the Asian and European sessions. Ocen the US released the economic figures, the buying has resumed where the price cleared the 1861(1) resistance and went all the way to day-high 1872, the day ended at 1869.

Under the shadow of the US Fed. minutes yesterday, the rebound was stronger than expected. An S-T upward trend line(2) has been formed in the past 36 hours, if the price can break out from this support line, gold will enter a range-bound structure of 1843-80. After all, still need to be aware in case the price clears the resistance of 1880, the upside target will be at 1900 or higher.

Although gold is once again approaching 1880 and the resistance zone(3), as mentioned yesterday, the climb originated from 1780 has been completed on the daily chart after Tuesday's drop. Unless the price can close above 1870 in the next few days, otherwise the market will enter a mode of range-bound(4) just like last time. Since the market movement has been heavily determined by breaking news lately, be aware a new round of climbing may begin if the price jump above the key resistance of 1880.

S-T Resistance:
1890
1880
1875

Market price: 1872

S-T Supports:
1870-68
1865
1860

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註釋

Gold topped 1900 yesterday. Buying began early in the Asian and European session as the price has carried the buying momentum from the day before. The price broke through the key 1880(1) resistance and the move has continued until it reached day-high 1901. The price ended up closing at 1889, up by USD 28.

Once again the major move was triggered by news from Ukraine yesterday. After the price cleared the 1880 resistance, it has achieved the 1900 target. While the price was dipping toward 1887 early in the Asian session, the S-T support line(2) has been breached. The rapid escalation along trendline(2) from the day before will now slow down. Expect the price to trade between 1883-1900(3) in the early session today. The upward trendline(4) is still valid in the 1-hour chart. Major resistance undoubtedly is 1900(5), if the price is able to jump above 1900 later in the US session, the first upside target will be at 1908-10.

Althought no one can precisely predict when the news would be released, the movement yesterday was in line with our expectation where the price has gone all the way to our target 1900 once it cleared the barrier at 1880(6). The price is being rejected by 1900 for the moment, if the price is able to move higher today, the target can be set at 1908.

S-T Resistance:
1908
1900
1895

Market price: 1892

S-T Supports:
1888
1880-83
1876

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