Gold Trade Setup – Tactical Short Call

Gold’s recent rebound appears corrective within a broader short-term bearish structure. Price action has stalled below the 200-period 4H SMA and key Fib resistance, signaling potential exhaustion.

🔎 Technical Confluence:

• Rejection from descending trendline resistance
  
• 61.8% retracement of the latest drop capped upside near $3,315
  
• Bearish RSI divergence on 1H and 4H
  
• Weak momentum on MACD + low ADX signals lack of trend strength
  

📊 Macro Overlay:

• Market remains cautious ahead of today’s Core PCE data (expected to cool slightly YoY).
  
• Rising real yields and firm USD limit upside in gold, especially as risk-on tone returns temporarily.
  
• Positioning data shows speculative longs remain elevated—raising vulnerability to profit-taking.
  

⚠️ Execution Note:
Patience is key—wait for confirmation via bearish engulfing or failure swing near $3,315 before engaging. Lower timeframes show consolidation; a breakdown below $3,290 will likely accelerate toward the $3,274 target.