Gold - bulls still have the upper hand.

2020年12月2日

Dear traders,

Gold has been doing great these past couple of years and although we have been slowing down a bit since august there are probably still great times ahead.

Here's my view on the current corrective move:

So far we have had some selling since the high of around 2075 dollars that brought us down some 15%. Using the EW theory I say we are in a wave 4 now that is nearly finished. A standard ABC corrective move would bring us to the 1700 to 1740 dollar area. In addition, the C wave in a correction usualy comes as a 5 wave and so far I can only count 3, meaning we're just not there yet. Do keep in mind that this is not a must. Also, the RSI shows positive divergence so that's another argument for a bottom.

For a 5 wave to become invalid it must pass the point of wave 1 (as shown with the purple dotted line) so it seems that 1850 is an important area.
If we do turn back down at or near 1850 there's still room for a 5% decrease in price but if you are a bull with a longer horizon you have to ask yourself if that's worth the guess.

For the bears (please don't be one): IF we break the 1700 area then we have to look way lower towards 1500, but so far there's no reason to do so yet. And even if that scenario would happen, Elliott Wave theory tells us we still need a higher high than 2075 dollar.

So basically, this might all just be a great point to buy in or add extra. There seems no reason to be truly bearish yet. I have seen targets from 2700 to 3500 dollars from traders that are better in Elliott Wave than I am but I rather keep my conservative target of 2400, which is still an increase of well over 30% from here. No time stamp though. Could take a couple of months, maybe 2 years..

Good luck trading and remember: Always use stops to protect your investments!