IBIT — Ishares Bitcoin Trust. Under Bearish Pressure

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has been a mixed performer year to date, with its price up and down around 20 percent this year and currently tracking for low double-digit returns in 2025.

The ETF currently trades around $59.36–$60.40, with assets under management of around $68 billion and a 0.1 percent premium to net asset value (NAV).

1-Hour Technical Outlook

On the 1-hour time frame, technical indicators are mixed but generally bearish:

• Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages (e.g. 200-hour SMA/EMA) are currently signaling a Sell signal as the price moved below these averages in late May.
  
• Support and resistance: The ETF faces resistance around $61, corresponding to the broken 200-hour SMA, and support around $54, with stronger volume-based support around $47, corresponding to the beginning of the April rally.
  
• RSI indicator: Over the last 20 days, the RSI(55) indicator has already been briefly noted below the baseline of 50, highlighting the need for more active risk management, since, as we can see from the chart, the indicator has again moved into the risk zone in late May and early June (where it currently remains), accordingly, for a longer term.
  
• Volatility: During the recovery period in April-May 2025, the ETF demonstrated moderate intraday volatility (with half the 200-hour sigma value (σ) of about 3.5 percent), while the 20-hour decline on May 22-23, which exceeded this value, has provided at that time clear arguments for more active risk management.
  

To summarize, we can say that IBIT is experiencing a pullback, technical indicators point to local persistence of bearish sentiment, following the classic, empirically proven adage of the financial market "Sell in May - and Go away."

--
Best wishes,
PandorraResearch Team