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Iota break out or down? (corrected chart)

Iota seems to be at a crucial moment:

The mid-term trend line from early November 2017 has caught up & after a fake out of the descending triangle it has been trading within a range.

There're two possible scenarios:

1. If it can break out of the range with strong RSI, it can possibly go to the 1.618 extension ($8).
2. If it breaks down the mid-term trend line, it's not going to perform well for some time.

Check out my view on bitcoin:

BTC possible bull trap ahead & systemic risk to the market

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註釋

Still no breakout. Trend line catching up. It may just go up from there (2/3). To come down (1/3) we need bitcoin to crash.

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Appears to be a breakout. We need bitcoin to be stable for a while. Once above ath, iota can go to $8.

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Resistance at 4.5. Probably called this one too early. It's already overbought on the 1h time frame and under. It'll go under somewhat & observe how bitcoin acts. Iota is just a bitcoin margin machine: it goes up 3x bitcoin and down 2x, something like that.

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wow, that was a close call. I got in & out quickly when it turned south.

I noticed that bitifnex coins don't perform like others. I think it's due to their cheap margin.

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still in that tiny triangle. depending on how bitcoin goes. but I happen to think today bitcoin may drop a little (reached the top of the current range).

maybe another fake out.

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This is really disappointing. I got in when bitcoin started pumping & the trend line was hit but iota started dumping at the same time. I think this analysis was possibly wrong. Maybe it's not going above 4.5 without some big news.