IOT (IOTA) downtrend revealing a beauty of channels

已更新

As noted in my previous IOTUSD analysis on the 4H IOT (IOTA) liberating from BTC, the downtrend resistance (further solid green bold) acted very strong in the latest price follow through. A boring side move-out of that resistance from Apr-02 to Apr-12, though luckily confirmed as support at Apr-04, while sametime stealth-like playing under the 100% retracement, is now opening us a new view of support/resistance channels (blue solid and dashed sub-channels).

Since begin of March the whole 200 EMA (purple curve) southside action can be viewed as a cup&handle formation (yellow arcs), which got tested exactly at the 200 EMA resistance (Apr-13), broken up with volume (Apr-14) and confirmed as new support (Apr-16). Nicely, we now also see a resistance/rejection at the sub-channel mirroring (dashed blue) as a perfect range reflection of the last 3 months price action to the upside.

Technical targets with nice confluences (green cross):
- Cup&Handle follow through: $2.10
- Fib 78% restracement: $2.10
- Same time with the new entered channel resistance blue at $2.10 (which would extendedly play out at Apr-26)

As I overall don't yet see any convincing sign of an "ALT season" start, uncoupling strongly from Bitcoin/BTC major market(& sentiment) leader, we need to consider also some potentials to the downside. Thus I added also a formation of a potential H&S playout in the next days (grey letters and grey triangles), which also has credence within the leading channels:
- a completion of that small inside pattern would lead us down to retest the edge of the the current upbroken macro channel (grey cross), which would also better confirm this as new support
- a then subsequent uptest of the support/resistance-confirmed sub-channel (dashed blue) and the 200 EMA could totally lead out and morph the cup&handle into a larger inverse H&S pattern! (light added red arc)

註釋

Beware of the logarithmic view, which implies a multi channel upbreak price walkthrough, that needs to be confirmed at the least support, and acting on some further strong volumes to hold strong:

交易進行

Short term H&S invalidated + Double confirm of the 200 EMA support. IOTUSD bouncing off for our channel target (green cross).
From there I see quite chances to right fill the next channel or even the 61% retracement, also because of total lack of overhead resistances from here.

Unless a market leader (BTC) or total crypto space sudden disbelief hits in, drawing down everything hard again - for what I see less chances, as the long weeks bears sentiment will most likely not be eaten up by the bulls too fast & strong rallies will need some distribution first before heading way in any other direction (and that applies to all over crypto space now).

交易進行

There we are: confluence hit at $2.10 from Apr-16

Next open channel -> 61% -> real alt season could now be next outlooks. And the all over market sentiment looks very good for that.

What I like to add is that I'm not macro bullish though! Consider market leader BTC even doing a 16k in the next months, that's no new ATH, and will further simply build a huge bear flag with a 2k down target. Alts like IOTA though could experience new ATHs in the same move.