ITALY 10Y BTP BELOW PAR PRICE,SIGNAL PRESSURE ON PRICING

2020年4月8日

ITALY 10Y BTP BROKE UPTREND CHANNEL, YIELDS HAVE BEEN MOVING CONSISTENTLY HIGHER,
CONSIDERING THE PRESSURE AND THE NECESSARY ISSUANCE SUPPLY OF BTP TO FINANCE PUBLIC SPENDING,(CONSIDERING GLOBAL LOCKDOWN CONDITIONS),
THE ITALIAN SOVEREIGN DEBT SECURITY HAS TAKEN A BIT OF A BATTERING IN THE GLOBAL STOCK MARKET REPRICING.
HOWEVER, THE BTP TREND LINE COULD BE SOMEHOW ANTICIPATING THE EQUITY SELL-OFF, GIVEN THAT THE BT CORRECTION
TOWARD RETESTING THE €90 EURO PRICE, BELOW PAR, THAT WOULD BE THE BUY ENTRY POINT, GIVEN THE ECB BACKSTOP
ON THE EURO AREA BOND MARKET
HOWEVER, BTP PRICES ARE GOING TO SEE ANOTHER -6.3% SELL-OFF CORRECTION,
BEFORE BOND FUNDS WOULD STEP IN TO BUY, ALSO ON ECB BUY SIGNAL.
UPSIDE AND YIELD COMPRESSION REMAINS SUBDUED, WHERE 10YBTP PRICE WOULD REBOUND FROM €90 EURO TO €100/€102/€104 RANGE, A LITTLE BIT ABOVE PAR.
IT'S POSSIBLE TO FORESEE 10Y BTP CARRYING YIELDS ABOVE 1.0% FOR ALL 2020

2020年4月8日

註釋

HOWEVER, BTP PRICES ARE GOING TO SEE ANOTHER -6.3% SELL-OFF CORRECTION,
BEFORE BOND FUNDS WOULD STEP IN TO BUY, ALSO ON ECB BUY SIGNAL.
UPSIDE AND YIELD COMPRESSION REMAINS SUBDUED, WHERE 10YBTP PRICE WOULD REBOUND FROM €90 EURO TO €100/€102/€104 RANGE, A LITTLE BIT ABOVE PAR.
IT'S POSSIBLE TO FORESEE 10Y BTP CARRYING YIELDS ABOVE 1.0% FOR ALL 2020