Nasdaq Composite Target 9800 in months, Target 19-30k in 2024

2020年1月15日

Nasdaq Composite is going through Wave 3 of the primary Wave 5. As often happened in the fibonacci channel which started from September 2011, IXIC will very likely rally up to 9800, to the top line of the channel in February or March. From there it will possibly drop to 9200, rise again to 10000, down again, rinse and repeat a couple of times, providing abundant opportunities for 'swing' style investing.


IXIC will very likely rise parallel and very close to the top fibonacci channel line through 2020, but 2021 might be some kind of bearish year. 2021 is a major trough according to the Benner cycle, which also successfully predicted the bottom years of 1987 and 2003. Similar to the (not always accurate) rule of alternation in Elliott Wave theory, there seems to be a constant alternation between 'panic' and 'recession'. 1987 was a year of panic, the stocks dropped quickly and sharply, but rebounded very fast. 2001-2003 were years of recession for the technology sector, with relatively long lasting effects. Therefore we could assume 2021 would be another year of panic, sharp and quick price movements both up and down, but the big picture remains bullish. This predicted major trough also coincides with the intermediary Wave 4 of the primary Wave 5.


Wave 5 of the primary Wave 5 could start in later 2021 and finish in 2024 between 20000 and 30000, thus finishing the very long overall bullish trend from 2009, forming the Wave III on Cycle level. 2024 is the bearish year indicated by USA demographic trends, but 2025-2040 will be very bullish. Basically USA stock markets rose very quickly in the 1990s because significant amount of money was pouring into the stock market, which in turn is due to the fact that the age group between 45 and 64 was growing very qucikly, and this group typically has more excess cash and credit to spend in the stock and property market. 2025-2040 will see the USA age group of 45-64 grow quickly too, fundamentally between 2025-2040 there is good base for USA stocks to perform even better than 2010-2020.


The predicted bearish market between 2024 and 2025 or 2026 could be interpreted as Wave IV, alternatively it could still be part of Wave III, and Wave IV would only arrive in the late 2030s. It's still too early to be sure about how Wave IV of the great cycles from 1974 would lay out, because we are still in the early or middle stage of Wave III

2020年1月26日

註釋

Dropped a bit due to corona virus panic, which I don't think will last long. Every year 300000-600000 people die from influenza and nobody bats an eye. Only 4 infections of corona virus in USA and the whole market drops? This is definitely irrational panic at play, I think the market will soon realise it's not as bad as they assumed, at least in America. Target 9800 in 1-2 months is still reasonable.

2020年2月19日

交易結束：目標達成

Short term target 9800 reached! Time to take profit and enjoy your victory, if you guys have followed my advice. IXIC will very possibly drop from 9800, down 100-300 points, up again trying to reach 10000, which may be successful or not. After this rally to 10000, it will drop from there significantly, close to the .786 channel line, and rise from there again. Very interesting time for swing investment ahead!

2020年3月2日

註釋

Wow IXIC dropped A LOT last week, guess we can only deduct when and how much it will drop, but we can never predict HOW it will drop. IXIC consolidated almost 2 years in the 7000s from 2018 to 2019, so 7500-8200 is the next buy zone. 7500 is also the bottom of the fibbonacci ascending channel, which could be broken below slightly in extreme panic, but will definitely bounce back from 7000s quickly.