So, let me tell you guys a little story. Back towards the end of 2002, the market finally started to recover from the .com crash. Things look well until the beginning of 2004 causes a 0.382 retractment. The market still had a strong uptrend however, and carried on until the 1.618 retraction in 2008.
Then, another crash. This time the bottom was nearly the same bottom that occurred back on 02' (200 or so points higher this time around). After around 2009 though, the economy got it's act together and is now starting to recover.
It's been a decade since the crash of 08', and the market has just continued to go up. 2016 was the only real major correction we had and that was only a 0.236 retractment. Now comes to where we are currently.
7600 is a very scary number...we are getting awfully close to that 1.618 retractment again. Do I think it's going to kill the market? No, the treasury spread is still at .55, so it shouldn't cause another recession. However, don't be shocked to see a 500 point (conservatively) dip before seeing it carry on to the next milestone of 9,000 (which is definitely where I would expect the crash to occur).
The Monthly ROC is starting to have lower and lower tops, the Monthly RSI is at 86!!!! The Monthly MACD is near it's 2000 top! there is a lot of warning signs here, and the worse thing you could do is try to cheer on a company rather than attempt to play the market smart and realize it will recover shortly and be better than ever. Play the cycle, use this as a sell point and then an opportunity to buy some more of the company at a later time.
This is obviously not confirmed! But it's something where you should be weary about, play the cycle guys, use this as a chance to optimize profits, especially those in $AAPL, $GOOGL, $TSLA, $FB, $MSFT, etc. etc.
評論:
I've just comeback to say I'm right, hope ya'll listened. Made a nice little 500% profit on a VIX call, definitely not looking to go long just yet, gonna wait for an uptrend to form a little bit, seem to be in free-fall