So, let me tell you guys a little story. Back towards the end of 2002, the market finally started to recover from the .com crash. Things look well until the beginning of 2004 causes a 0.382 retractment. The market still had a strong uptrend however, and carried on until the 1.618 retraction in 2008.
Then, another crash. This time the bottom was nearly the same bottom that occurred back on 02' (200 or so points higher this time around). After around 2009 though, the economy got it's act together and is now starting to recover.
It's been a decade since the crash of 08', and the market has just continued to go up. 2016 was the only real major correction we had and that was only a 0.236 retractment. Now comes to where we are currently.
7600 is a very scary number...we are getting awfully close to that 1.618 retractment again. Do I think it's going to kill the market? No, the treasury spread is still at .55, so it shouldn't cause another recession. However, don't be shocked to see a 500 point (conservatively) dip before seeing it carry on to the next milestone of 9,000 (which is definitely where I would expect the crash to occur).
The Monthly ROC is starting to have lower and lower tops, the Monthly RSI is at 86!!!! The Monthly MACD is near it's 2000 top! there is a lot of warning signs here, and the worse thing you could do is try to cheer on a company rather than attempt to play the market smart and realize it will recover shortly and be better than ever. Play the cycle, use this as a sell point and then an opportunity to buy some more of the company at a later time.
This is obviously not confirmed! But it's something where you should be weary about, play the cycle guys, use this as a chance to optimize profits, especially those in AAPL, GOOGL, TSLA, FB, MSFT, etc. etc.
評論
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I've just comeback to say I'm right, hope ya'll listened. Made a nice little 500% profit on a VIX call, definitely not looking to go long just yet, gonna wait for an uptrend to form a little bit, seem to be in free-fall
Man, you called it. Just above 9000 and bam. Nasdaq rug pulled right out from under. Damn Impressive for sure! You think this is the next recession starting?
croganm
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@Spawn777, Hey, totally forgot about this post actually! haha, anyway after such a large and dramatic move, any price predictions further than a week or two out are essentially worthless.
From what I can tell, the market is extremely oversold, reaching levels that have not been reached in a long time, setting a record for quickest 10% dip of all time (Beating out February of 2018, the last similar occurrence of something like this). Even looking at important market ratios such as SPY/TLT and SPY/GLD shows that we are hitting some major support across assets. Regardless of the news, statistics play a large part in market pricing dynamics, and this is one of those times where you have to trust market statistics claiming we are oversold.
The only thing I can see for certain is that if you were not already short, you missed the boat on this run down. The most likely scenario is we consolidate for a couple weeks or months, similar to Mid-Feb of 2018 and March of 2018. Only then after that consolidation can we really then begin to start deriving future scenarios for the market. If that instance doesn't occur, we V-Bottom 5-10% and the market consolidates then like in April and May of 2019.
Excessive optimism was pretty apparent over the past couple of weeks, so I ended up shifting my 100% equity allocation that I have been holding for the majority of 2019 to 70% Treasuries midway through February. I'd be lying if I said I predicted this magnitude of a selloff or the timing of this selloff, but it's important to realize that market timing does require some aspect of luck. Although I was expecting to hold my treasury position for months, I sold half on Thursday and the other half on Friday and now just have a lot of cash on the sideline so I can figure out the next course of action.