KAS-USDT (Bybit spot), 4-hour candles TA+Trade plan

1. Market context & chart structure

Asset / venue / timeframe: KAS-USDT (Bybit spot), 4-hour candles, data to 12 Jun 2025 06:45 UTC (see image).

Primary pattern in play: Price has compressed into a contracting (symmetrical) triangle that began after the 28 May low. The apex is only ~1–2 candles away, so a decisive break is statistically imminent.

Preceding structure:

17-day descending channel → capitulation into a falling-wedge reversal (27–28 May).

Two-legged double-bottom (“Bottom 2”) at 0.075–0.078 USDT.

Sideways rectangle 29 May-7 Jun, now morphing into the present triangle.

Key horizontal levels (4 h closes): 0.0930 (upper triangle rail / neckline) · 0.0891 (local supply) · 0.0797 (strong demand / wedge base) · 0.0620 (monthly support)

Volume picture: Realised volume has been drying up since 31 May, a classic pre-breakout contraction. A spike on the break will confirm direction.

2. Indicator read-out


Market Cipher B - Green momentum wave printing, money-flow bars just turned positive Mildly bullish, Early bull divergence vs 28 May

RSI(14) - 46 and curling up - Neutral-to-bullish Hidden bullish divergence vs price higher-lows

Stoch RSI 26/24 and crossing up from oversold Bullish Momentum reset complete

ArTy Money-Flow Index +3.5 and rising Bullish Positive inflow after five sessions of outflow

Collectively the oscillators favour an upside resolution, provided volume confirms.

3. Scenario probability matrix

Scenario Trigger & confirmation

Option 1 – Uptrend continuation

4 h close ≥ 0.0925 USDT with volume ≥ 2× 20-period average
Measured-move 0.107 → 0.118;
extended fib 1.618 ≈ 0.125–0.128
Est. probability: 60 %


Option 2 – Downtrend resumption

4 h close ≤ 0.079 USDT with similar volume spike 0.072 (range EQ) → 0.067–0.062 structural support
Est. probability: 40 %

Weighting derives from: oscillator bias, shrinking supply above 0.092 (order-book heat-map), but tempered by external models calling for a short-term dip toward 0.067 USDT



4. Trading plan
Component Long (Option 1) Short (Option 2)
Entry Buy stop 0.0926 USDT Sell stop 0.0789 USDT
Initial stop-loss 0.0838 USDT 0.0870 USDT (back inside triangle)
Primary target-1 0.1050 (≈1R) 0.0725 (≈1R)
Secondary target-2 0.1180 (≈2.5R) 0.0670 (≈2.5R)
Position size Risk ≤ 1 % of account per trade (adjust contracts accordingly)


5. Additional catalysts & risk factors
Macro-beta: BTC dominance and broad market risk-on / risk-off could swamp pattern-based setups; monitor DXY and SPX correlations.

Protocol news: Kaspa’s DAG-based roadmap upgrades and potential exchange listings remain upside catalysts. Conversely, lack of progress or regulatory headlines could accelerate a downside break.
kaspa.org

Weekend liquidity gaps: KAS often shows slippage outside US trading hours; consider reducing size or using wide stops if breakout occurs late Friday–Sunday.

6. To sum up
Bias: I lean 60 % toward Option 1 (bullish breakout) provided we get a 4 h close above 0.092 with volume confirmation. Otherwise, a flush to the 0.07 area (Option 2) is the alternative. Trade the break, not the prediction, and keep risk tight.