Bullish on KNCUSD, but THIS needs to happen first
Bullish Case:
1. Market structure: an inverse head and shoulders pattern is apparent on the daily chart. The measured move is 287 USD (205-123+205).
2. Volume: it has been steadily increasing in the past 5 days with price, including today's, which should result in the highest volume so far.
3. RSI: only the 4HR timeframe is in slight overbought territory at about 71. All other major timeframes have an RSI under 70, which indicate some room to run if the pattern plays out.
Prediction: IF A DAILY CANDLE closes above 2.05, that will be very convincing to me of the pattern breakout. If the close comes in between 2 and 2.05, the bullish case can still occur as a daily close above 2 has not happened.
Bearish case:
1. If the price action gets rejected below 2, the pattern may continue into a complex inverse head and shoulders. We may have to look for another attempt after the rejection for a breakout then.
1. Market structure: an inverse head and shoulders pattern is apparent on the daily chart. The measured move is 287 USD (205-123+205).
2. Volume: it has been steadily increasing in the past 5 days with price, including today's, which should result in the highest volume so far.
3. RSI: only the 4HR timeframe is in slight overbought territory at about 71. All other major timeframes have an RSI under 70, which indicate some room to run if the pattern plays out.
Prediction: IF A DAILY CANDLE closes above 2.05, that will be very convincing to me of the pattern breakout. If the close comes in between 2 and 2.05, the bullish case can still occur as a daily close above 2 has not happened.
Bearish case:
1. If the price action gets rejected below 2, the pattern may continue into a complex inverse head and shoulders. We may have to look for another attempt after the rejection for a breakout then.
評論:
Update: decimals missing in the first line. The measured move is 2.87 USD (2.05-1.23+2.05)
評論:
*These are purely my speculations and are not financial advice.