11/4/24 - $kvyo - ~$40... Valuation too much vs. comps
已更新
11/4/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
KVYO
~$40... Valuation too much vs. comps
- new one on my radar and reports this wk so using as an opportunity to augment/ refresh my thinking on ad-tech related names
- first there's no denying quality here, in a sense reminds me of
S in the cyber security space. expensive, but marginal winner. so i'm not going to fade this, nothing seems broken
- but valuation of 70x next year ('25) and 50x ('26) seems too much for low 20's top line growth. in earnest, i think you'd sleep better at night buying
META if you want to play ads + ai + other, add some calls to it for lighter fluid.
- but looking across the other comps,
TTD continues to look like a "stay away" valuation implosion eventually... but again perhaps not imminent. just v little upside for the R/R here.
-
SPT looks too expensive for a dead stock paying too much out in stock comp growing MSD+ and with mediocre margins. highly shorted...
- but cxm... also shorted likeSPT with better balance sheet, less SBC issue and similar margins. I'm waiting to get another risk off pullback on mkt before i'd complicate my pretty streamlined PnL and esp this week election is going to be whackydoodleland... so names like this probably not worth adding just yet. if they run, they run. whatever.
- investigating dsp. looks like the best growth and pretty good valuation (despite coming from behind). good opex flex. perhaps that's the smaller one that's the immediate buy for me. chart still in upward trend. thoughts on this??
- TBD for
MGNI, pubm... need to look further.
- any insights welcome. i'd love to buy
SHOP, but just need a valuation that's not going to make me cringe. i get it, i get it, it's going higher over time, but i like valuations AND stories that both work *today*.
any and ALL comments helpful. lmk what you think of the bunch. i bet i left a few out too.. help me add those to my list!
V
KVYO~$40... Valuation too much vs. comps
- new one on my radar and reports this wk so using as an opportunity to augment/ refresh my thinking on ad-tech related names
- first there's no denying quality here, in a sense reminds me of
S in the cyber security space. expensive, but marginal winner. so i'm not going to fade this, nothing seems broken- but valuation of 70x next year ('25) and 50x ('26) seems too much for low 20's top line growth. in earnest, i think you'd sleep better at night buying
META if you want to play ads + ai + other, add some calls to it for lighter fluid.- but looking across the other comps,
TTD continues to look like a "stay away" valuation implosion eventually... but again perhaps not imminent. just v little upside for the R/R here.-
SPT looks too expensive for a dead stock paying too much out in stock comp growing MSD+ and with mediocre margins. highly shorted...- but cxm... also shorted like
SPT with better balance sheet, less SBC issue and similar margins. I'm waiting to get another risk off pullback on mkt before i'd complicate my pretty streamlined PnL and esp this week election is going to be whackydoodleland... so names like this probably not worth adding just yet. if they run, they run. whatever.- investigating dsp. looks like the best growth and pretty good valuation (despite coming from behind). good opex flex. perhaps that's the smaller one that's the immediate buy for me. chart still in upward trend. thoughts on this??
- TBD for
MGNI, pubm... need to look further.- any insights welcome. i'd love to buy
SHOP, but just need a valuation that's not going to make me cringe. i get it, i get it, it's going higher over time, but i like valuations AND stories that both work *today*.any and ALL comments helpful. lmk what you think of the bunch. i bet i left a few out too.. help me add those to my list!
V
交易進行
small trading position here in the low 32's... but using a bit of ITM leverage to get exposure without necking out (and will force me to do more work, quickly). in the jan 17 2025 $25 C's for ~7.5交易結束：目標達成
took profits, a nice 75% gain on those options. enjoy. V
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