What goes up...

2019年3月6日

I think LLY is ready for a short term pullback. It's just about as high as it's ever been.
It missed earnings estimates
Recent news includes selling a half-priced version of insulan. Great news I suppose and it did not push the stock higher. So the energy behind this stock maybe is at it's peak.

• Trading today well above it's 21, 50, 200 MAs
  
• RSI(14) is 71
  

Other Stuff:
The "consensus" price target (on the nasdaq website) is 123...
There are 7 "analyst firms making recommendations". 7 are strong buy and 6 are hold. I guess one of the 6 "hold" recommendations could be upgraded, which would probably send the stock up... but there's no adjustment up from Strong Buy so at least half of that is covered.
It missed earnings forecast by just a little bit in early Feb.

Fwiw Implied volatility is 25%

I googled "charts to tell me when a run has peaked" and it kinda blew my mind.
Possible study targets:

• Head and Shoulders
  
• Triple top
  

The problem is... at every top, it goes a little higher. Yeesh.

My bet: April 18 130/125 Put Spread for $2.50

Max profit ($250) if the underlying is below 125 on April 18.

2019年3月13日

註釋

That 130/125 spread is trading for around 3.15 today.