Eli Lilly (LLY) – Full Technical + Fundamental Analysis (July 20

I wanted to take a deeper dive into LLY and analyze more than just trendlines—looking into both the technical structure and the broader fundamentals of the stock.

Sources: i have a list of sources at the end of my report

Technical Breakdown:
Current Price: ~$771.75
Resistance Zone: $950–970 prior rejection levels
Support Zone:
Strong: $760–765 (multiple historical rejections and rebounds).
Secondary: $717 (previous bounce area).
Trendline: Steadily rising higher-lows, supporting price above $760.
RSI: Recently cooled from 79 (overbought) to ~51 (neutral), suggesting balanced conditions. No immediate overbought or oversold signals.

Chart Pattern Summary:
Price respects a higher-low ascending trendline.
Buyers defend $760, but $800+ remains heavy resistance.
Breakdown below $760 risks a drop to ~$717.
Breakout above $800 opens upside toward $950–970.

Growth Catalysts:
1. Zepbound & Mounjaro dominate the obesity/diabetes sector.
2. Retatrutide & Orforglipron (next-gen obesity treatments) could further expand market share by 2026.
3. Revenue growth: ~45% YoY in Q4 2024.
4. Analysts forecast ~15% annual revenue growth and 20%+ EPS CAGR through 2027.

Risks:
1. Q1 2025 saw adjusted EPS guidance trimmed to ~$20.78–22.28 from previous ~$22.50–24, causing ~7% drop in stock .
2. Valuation rich: forward P/E ~35 vs peers like Novo at ~14
3. 025 EPS estimates have slightly fallen (from $22.20 to $21.94) while 2026 expectations rose.
4. New rival Hengrui/Kailera shows ~18–19% weight loss, close to Zepbound’s ~21%, though still pre-approval
5. Regulatory volatility: Trump has floated heavy pharma tariffs (up to 200%) and repatriation incentives; Lilly has U.S. capacity but details remain uncertain


Analyst Sentiment:
Consensus target: $1,000+ within 12–24 months.
MarketBeat & StockAnalysis rate LLY as Strong Buy.
Institutional ownership remains high.

What to Monitor Next
1. FDA approvals for orforglipron or retatrutide (expected late 2025).
2. Next earnings—watch for forward guidance recovery.
3. Policy shifts (potential tariffs on pharma imports).
4. Obesity drug competition (Novo Nordisk, Chinese biosimilars).

Final Position: Modest Long Bias
Eli Lilly is technically holding trendline support while fundamentally leading in a booming therapeutic sector. Together, this makes LLY a long-term buy, though caution near $760 is warranted.

I tried to summaries as short as possible as i didn't want to make this post into an essay

Please note this is not financial advice

Sources Used for Analysis:

1. Eli Lilly Company Filings & Reports
2. Latest Earnings Reports (Q1 2025, prior Q4 2024)
3. Pipeline Updates and FDA Submission News
4. MarketBeat (Analyst ratings & price targets)
5. Yahoo Finance (EPS estimates, revenue growth forecasts)
6. StockAnalysis.com (Valuation ratios, dividend data)
7. Bloomberg and CNBC (News on guidance revisions)
8. Federal Reserve statements and forecasts
9. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) – healthcare inflation data
10. WSJ and Financial Times – reporting on pharma tariffs and global healthcare policy shifts
11. Industry and Sector Insights
12. Novo Nordisk Investor Updates – competitor tracking
13. Statista – Obesity/diabetes global prevalence reports
14. World Health Organization (WHO) reports
15. Standard RSI and trendline patterns (based on TradingView style)
16. Support/resistance zones derived from historical price action Market Sentiment Tools
17. CNN Fear & Greed Index
18. S&P 500 Health Care Sector ETF (XLV) trends