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Litecoin - What to Watch

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Here, you can see that Litecoin has maintained two parallel uptrend channels since 2017. We can observe at least 7 touches on the upper trendline, 11 touches on the middle, and at least five on the lower trendline. In theory, the middle trendline should be difficult to break. It took multiple attempts, even in 2018. However, this possibility shouldn't be ignored, considering the cryptocurrency is now in a technical bearish trend. Unfortunately, the rejection from the previous all-time high was extreme, and shows some potential weakness.

For the bullish case, Litecoin will need to hold that middle trendline and break the upper trendline again. The breakout above in April ended up being an enormous bull trap, and I (along with many others) were fooled. Thankfully, my cost basis for Litecoin is much much lower (having first purchased some around $32 in 2019), but we can easily see the $60-70 range again if it can't hold up here. I did however purchase some recently, with buys at $175, $135, and $119, adding roughly 15% to my stack, though it still remains a smaller portion of my portfolio. If that middle trendline holds, that will look like a very good decision by the end of the year. I will admit though - Litecoin has underperformed my expectations.

There are plenty of reasons to be cautious. If you look to the far left of the chart, you can observe a similar rejection that occurred in 2017. However, this rejection was quickly bought, and LTC continued making higher lows, maintaining an uptrend. In 2021, we have severely violated the uptrend with no signs yet of continuation to the upside. Certainly a precarious position.

Additionally, LTC/BTC is close to making a failed breakout above the long-term downtrend. As long as it holds as support, it should be good to at least retest the recent highs...but this looks nothing like the previous bull market, and could spell trouble for Litecoin in the future.