LTC IN DEPTH 5/20/19: Bulls showing weakness.
已更新
Hello my trader friends,
TraderNoxtreme back with you weekly Litecoin in depth. I hope you are ripping profit out of this market left and right or nailing the swings. Please like and subscribe if you want me to keep doing these.
LTC Weekly 5/20/19: Not a repeat.
Welp, our historical comparison broke when we hit 107+ last week which is great for bulls. We are no longer looking at the same pattern because this gave us a higher high rather than a higher low. This means that we can keep an eye on this pattern but even if the price does spike in 4 more weeks (including our current week) this would NOT be a repeat of history. This being said, we have now seen 3 very strong green weeks in a row and now we have 1 pretty strong red day on the new weekly candle. Our RSI is sitting pretty high at 62, but it still has room for more upside. MacD is showing the obvious bull momentum but the strength is decreasing, So, logic says, that we should pull back this week. Bulls would like to see a pullback hold the bottom of our previous weekly candle at about 84.70 BUT downside potential is large now and a pull back all the way back to around 64.50 would still maintain our bullish weekly uptrend. I don’t feel we will pull back this far but it can happen and we should not become blindly bullish here. We have been VERY bullish action for a few months but we saw extremely bearish action all of 2018. I can now officially say that our mid term trend is bullish and our long term is debatably bullish as well (we need a confirmed test). Let’s get into the shorter-term time frames and see what things look like.
LTC 1D 5/20/19: 100! AAAAAND its gone.
OMG 100! So excited I forgot to sell. Jk. My initial reaction to this daily chart now is that there is real pullback potential here. When we spiked back up to a new higher high at 107.57 4 days ago our RSI went all the way to 76. This is the second or third highest we have seen in 2019. From this high we pulled back SHARPLY 21.93%! Does this mean we are doomed for a red week? No, but it does make it a lot more likely that we will see a lower high (which we did) then a higher low (we are working on this now). Bulls want to hold 87.44 to maintain this tightening daily range. If we lose that then we will be looking at 84.46 and 75.55 as our next two major support levels. If we break below these by the end of the week I will become concerned about a weekly downtrend. It might be premature to talk about but its important to stay real here and understand there is a good possibility this was simply a higher low on the monthly which I don’t break down in these in depths. Our RSI is currently 62 and Mac D looks like it might try and test a bearish cross. One more thing I see here is that we have some pretty strong overhead resistance now between 94 and 96 so even if we are able to hold 90 as our lower high, we would likely see a higher low around 95. Sorry bulls but your going to need to prove that you still have the strength here. One bullish thing I do notice is that bulls have been holding support very well on these sharp pull backs to make sure the weekly uptrend stays intact and we have some nice support built up. On the daily, besides the two supports at 84.46 and 75.55 we also have the 26EMA adding to our 84.46 support and our 50 MA at 81. This 81 support also lines up well with the bottom of our previous bull channel which seems to still be providing support even though it has been broken twice now.
I need to do a major overhaul on this chart.
LTC 4hr 5/20/19: Plotting our next move in secret.
HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern behold! This time frame has me concerned as well for bulls. We have a clear as day head and shoulder pattern that, if confirmed, would have us looking for our higher low on the weekly for sure. It seems unlikely that this pattern will confirm BUT what will you do if it does? Make a plan for weekly and monthly consolidation because it is becoming likely. So now that I hope you are sufficiently concerned; Our RSI on the 4hr is nice at 47. Our MacD seems like it might reject the bear cross it is facing. I also happen to know we just got a golden cross on the 1 hr (50 sma bull cross the 200 sma) so I think we will reject the bear MacD cross on the 4 hr. Right now, our price is sitting right on top of our previous bullish channel so bulls need to show up to defend this before the bears can complete (not confirm) our head and shoulder pattern. If that pattern completes, we will likely have a fair number of people step back just in case the pattern confirms. Lastly, we have a new overhead resistance trend line that could give us our new upper target. At this point, 113 is looking like a hopium pipe dream but if we negate the head and shoulder pattern, we could reach fomo level 11. For the last day and a half it feels like the bulls and bears have returned to their hideouts to plan their next move.
LTC 1hr 5/20/19: One very bullish sign.
We have a recent golden cross on the 1 hour. About 9 days ago this led to a 25% run. Unfortunately, this is where the similarities end and the differences begin. Before we were in an uptrend at the end of over a week of consolidation. Our RSI was high at 82 and now its lowish at 43. Our MacD had also bull crossed shortly before our golden cross. This time we need a fair amount of bull volume just to attempt to cross the MacD bullish. So, while its possible we could see bullish price action from this golden cross I will be remaining cautious of our large head and shoulders unless we see at least a few percent of upside movement in the short term. Right now, risk is not favorable to reward in the near term but as you can see by the size of some of our bars, this can shift on a dime. We have the squeeze of ALL moving averages paired with a golden cross which is very bullish but these moving averages could act as MORE resistance.
Closing Note:
While I am leaning bearish this week lets recognize that we are now walking the line between crazy upside potential and a continued bullish fight. Being crypto enthusiasts, we want to see success reflected in price and it’s hard not to lose touch with the reality that price is simply how much someone will pay for your coins NOT how much you think they are worth. All the media outlets are pumping out positive article after article, Consensus parties and pitches look so fun and exciting, partnerships are blossoming and bearing fruit, real adoption is taking place and price is booming because of it. Is this all a premature hype rally from the bottom? Let’s not forget the bottom was only 3 months ago (roughly) and that price was more than 65% below us. Look at the monthly chart and decide for yourself what happens next.
Related to the LTC halving; We are not yet (and may never) seeing the extreme hype run related to the LTC halving August 6th but next month on the 6th would be 3 months from halving day… Personally, I feel that the run is going to happen because of the supply and demand ratio shift. This being said, I would expect to see more strength out of LTC comparative to other coins during the last few months. LTC started off in Feb looking like it was going to outrun the other coins without much effort but since then it seems to be struggling to keep up and BCH is actually outpacing it by a fair margin. I can’t help but speculate that miners noticed that LTC was running HARD and decided to take advantage of this premium before cutting off their selling leading into Aug 6th. So, let’s assume LTC miners are selling coins back into the markets to take advantage of the strength. Would they want to crush the weekly uptrend? NO, I don’t believe they would. Short traders who still think this is 2018 want this but not the miners. So, although we might see a red week, I think miners will be quick to stop selling if LTC goes weaker than the pack. They don’t want to hurt the potential hype spike that we might see. I expect social media and news outlet chatter to really pick up about the halving soon. If we see this happen then I expect our price to climb with the hype. I will be watching google trend data and twitter mention data for signs that the hype is picking up. If we don’t see this social narrative pick up soon then I will begin thinking that the halving for LTC may be a nonevent.
Lastly, a good warning for newer traders; if LTC breaks 113 and holds on the monthly… We pretty much shot straight to ATH in 2017 from there so be prepared. It was one GIANT green monthly candle that COLAPSED on the very next candle. The only thing worse then missing the spike is buying in on the wrong side! DO NOT hold a bag bought on the wrong side of a huge monthly green candle unless you are prepared to hold for a year plus. Good luck my friends. Keep you mind clear and perspective balanced as we are walking a line between insanity and devastation at this point.
If you enjoy reading these please like. If you want more of these in-depth analyses, please subscribe.
If want me to do things differently; if you disagree; if you love it or hate it, please shout it in the comments below.
TraderNoxtreme back with you weekly Litecoin in depth. I hope you are ripping profit out of this market left and right or nailing the swings. Please like and subscribe if you want me to keep doing these.
LTC Weekly 5/20/19: Not a repeat.
Welp, our historical comparison broke when we hit 107+ last week which is great for bulls. We are no longer looking at the same pattern because this gave us a higher high rather than a higher low. This means that we can keep an eye on this pattern but even if the price does spike in 4 more weeks (including our current week) this would NOT be a repeat of history. This being said, we have now seen 3 very strong green weeks in a row and now we have 1 pretty strong red day on the new weekly candle. Our RSI is sitting pretty high at 62, but it still has room for more upside. MacD is showing the obvious bull momentum but the strength is decreasing, So, logic says, that we should pull back this week. Bulls would like to see a pullback hold the bottom of our previous weekly candle at about 84.70 BUT downside potential is large now and a pull back all the way back to around 64.50 would still maintain our bullish weekly uptrend. I don’t feel we will pull back this far but it can happen and we should not become blindly bullish here. We have been VERY bullish action for a few months but we saw extremely bearish action all of 2018. I can now officially say that our mid term trend is bullish and our long term is debatably bullish as well (we need a confirmed test). Let’s get into the shorter-term time frames and see what things look like.
LTC 1D 5/20/19: 100! AAAAAND its gone.
OMG 100! So excited I forgot to sell. Jk. My initial reaction to this daily chart now is that there is real pullback potential here. When we spiked back up to a new higher high at 107.57 4 days ago our RSI went all the way to 76. This is the second or third highest we have seen in 2019. From this high we pulled back SHARPLY 21.93%! Does this mean we are doomed for a red week? No, but it does make it a lot more likely that we will see a lower high (which we did) then a higher low (we are working on this now). Bulls want to hold 87.44 to maintain this tightening daily range. If we lose that then we will be looking at 84.46 and 75.55 as our next two major support levels. If we break below these by the end of the week I will become concerned about a weekly downtrend. It might be premature to talk about but its important to stay real here and understand there is a good possibility this was simply a higher low on the monthly which I don’t break down in these in depths. Our RSI is currently 62 and Mac D looks like it might try and test a bearish cross. One more thing I see here is that we have some pretty strong overhead resistance now between 94 and 96 so even if we are able to hold 90 as our lower high, we would likely see a higher low around 95. Sorry bulls but your going to need to prove that you still have the strength here. One bullish thing I do notice is that bulls have been holding support very well on these sharp pull backs to make sure the weekly uptrend stays intact and we have some nice support built up. On the daily, besides the two supports at 84.46 and 75.55 we also have the 26EMA adding to our 84.46 support and our 50 MA at 81. This 81 support also lines up well with the bottom of our previous bull channel which seems to still be providing support even though it has been broken twice now.
I need to do a major overhaul on this chart.
LTC 4hr 5/20/19: Plotting our next move in secret.
HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern behold! This time frame has me concerned as well for bulls. We have a clear as day head and shoulder pattern that, if confirmed, would have us looking for our higher low on the weekly for sure. It seems unlikely that this pattern will confirm BUT what will you do if it does? Make a plan for weekly and monthly consolidation because it is becoming likely. So now that I hope you are sufficiently concerned; Our RSI on the 4hr is nice at 47. Our MacD seems like it might reject the bear cross it is facing. I also happen to know we just got a golden cross on the 1 hr (50 sma bull cross the 200 sma) so I think we will reject the bear MacD cross on the 4 hr. Right now, our price is sitting right on top of our previous bullish channel so bulls need to show up to defend this before the bears can complete (not confirm) our head and shoulder pattern. If that pattern completes, we will likely have a fair number of people step back just in case the pattern confirms. Lastly, we have a new overhead resistance trend line that could give us our new upper target. At this point, 113 is looking like a hopium pipe dream but if we negate the head and shoulder pattern, we could reach fomo level 11. For the last day and a half it feels like the bulls and bears have returned to their hideouts to plan their next move.
LTC 1hr 5/20/19: One very bullish sign.
We have a recent golden cross on the 1 hour. About 9 days ago this led to a 25% run. Unfortunately, this is where the similarities end and the differences begin. Before we were in an uptrend at the end of over a week of consolidation. Our RSI was high at 82 and now its lowish at 43. Our MacD had also bull crossed shortly before our golden cross. This time we need a fair amount of bull volume just to attempt to cross the MacD bullish. So, while its possible we could see bullish price action from this golden cross I will be remaining cautious of our large head and shoulders unless we see at least a few percent of upside movement in the short term. Right now, risk is not favorable to reward in the near term but as you can see by the size of some of our bars, this can shift on a dime. We have the squeeze of ALL moving averages paired with a golden cross which is very bullish but these moving averages could act as MORE resistance.
Closing Note:
While I am leaning bearish this week lets recognize that we are now walking the line between crazy upside potential and a continued bullish fight. Being crypto enthusiasts, we want to see success reflected in price and it’s hard not to lose touch with the reality that price is simply how much someone will pay for your coins NOT how much you think they are worth. All the media outlets are pumping out positive article after article, Consensus parties and pitches look so fun and exciting, partnerships are blossoming and bearing fruit, real adoption is taking place and price is booming because of it. Is this all a premature hype rally from the bottom? Let’s not forget the bottom was only 3 months ago (roughly) and that price was more than 65% below us. Look at the monthly chart and decide for yourself what happens next.
Related to the LTC halving; We are not yet (and may never) seeing the extreme hype run related to the LTC halving August 6th but next month on the 6th would be 3 months from halving day… Personally, I feel that the run is going to happen because of the supply and demand ratio shift. This being said, I would expect to see more strength out of LTC comparative to other coins during the last few months. LTC started off in Feb looking like it was going to outrun the other coins without much effort but since then it seems to be struggling to keep up and BCH is actually outpacing it by a fair margin. I can’t help but speculate that miners noticed that LTC was running HARD and decided to take advantage of this premium before cutting off their selling leading into Aug 6th. So, let’s assume LTC miners are selling coins back into the markets to take advantage of the strength. Would they want to crush the weekly uptrend? NO, I don’t believe they would. Short traders who still think this is 2018 want this but not the miners. So, although we might see a red week, I think miners will be quick to stop selling if LTC goes weaker than the pack. They don’t want to hurt the potential hype spike that we might see. I expect social media and news outlet chatter to really pick up about the halving soon. If we see this happen then I expect our price to climb with the hype. I will be watching google trend data and twitter mention data for signs that the hype is picking up. If we don’t see this social narrative pick up soon then I will begin thinking that the halving for LTC may be a nonevent.
Lastly, a good warning for newer traders; if LTC breaks 113 and holds on the monthly… We pretty much shot straight to ATH in 2017 from there so be prepared. It was one GIANT green monthly candle that COLAPSED on the very next candle. The only thing worse then missing the spike is buying in on the wrong side! DO NOT hold a bag bought on the wrong side of a huge monthly green candle unless you are prepared to hold for a year plus. Good luck my friends. Keep you mind clear and perspective balanced as we are walking a line between insanity and devastation at this point.
If you enjoy reading these please like. If you want more of these in-depth analyses, please subscribe.
If want me to do things differently; if you disagree; if you love it or hate it, please shout it in the comments below.
註釋
Sorry all. Here is the 4 hr chart. 
Also not sure if you can see the ema strategy thing below this. Was working on creating a buy and sell indicator with Pine and for some reason I see the strategy tester here. Please ignore that.
註釋
CORRECTION. 2 months until the halving after the 6th of next month.Sorry about that
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