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Terra (LUNA) Trendline Break and Bearish Retest

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Funding has been so negative for LUNA recently. It's probably because leveraged traders see most alts going down and figure shorting is free money in this environment. They've learned a harsh lesson. squeezing shorts into oblivion. I entered a scalp short yesterday above $86 and closed near $84. Perhaps it's dangerous to hold a short here (especially with a tight stop), since it can pop off towards $100 one last time. But as you can see on this chart, it's starting to show some hidden weakness. Nothing goes up against Bitcoin forever in this market, and LUNA has been on quite a tear. Not a bad place to book some profits at least into Bitcoin, in my opinion. From what it seems (without knowing too much about the project), it's starting to acquire some of the hype from Solana and Cardano. In this market, when one thing seems like a golden goose, it's often a wise choice to take profit. There will always be another hyped project. And of course, one can always leave some on the table in case it's "the one." 98% of the time this isn't the case.

Zoomed in, you can see there's room for another push into the $90's should the market bounce a bit into the weekly open.

The weekly chart for LUNA/BTC is showing an ugly bearish divergence. We can easily see a failed high here and a longer term top. The daily chart (righthand chart above) shows a bullish channel, with LUNA/BTC testing the middle as we speak.

I may try to short LUNA again if we see the crypto market attempt a false breakout here. For LUNA to look bullish (long term) again, it will need to reclaim that trendline again on the lefthand chart. Regardless of what Bitcoin does, I think it will decline on the ratio.

Let's see what happens! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not as financial advice.

-Victor Cobra

交易進行

Entered near $83 today, after a couple of smaller shorts closed yesterday and this morning. Fairly tight stop above the local downtrend

註釋

Stop moved to break even.

手動結束交易

Closed for profit - going to let go of this for now and re-evaluate.

交易進行

Glad I closed when I did. Was able to re-enter higher. Let’s see. Still potential for me to be squeezed :)

交易結束：達到停損點

Stopped out. Looks like it might want to gun for some of those highs. Paying attention to any weekly bearish divergences that show up.

交易進行

Trying this thing again. This will be my last attempt, if I’m wrong. I will abandon this idea if LUNA sustains these high prices for weeks. Shorting $99 near the broken uptrend on my chart, with a very small position but with decent r/r if it topped out today. Potential for a failed high. Let’s see!

手動結束交易

Closed for profit at $90. I think the long term top for LUNA can be in but this wasn’t big enough of a position to really profit if it dumps by 50%.

註釋

Wish I hodled that short ;) First levels nearly reached already. That's what happens when whales are too confident.

註釋

Holy crap. RIP