Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market went nowhere past week so nothing changed from my last weeks update. Bulls want to retest the upper bear trend line around 69 and bears reversing below the 50% retracement of the bear trend that started in January. I do not have an opinion on where the breakout will happen, I can see it going both ways.
current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart - daily chart is a bear trend that could be transitioning into a trading range again
key levels: 55 - 69
bull case: Bulls see it as a failed acceleration down and want to retest the prior bear trend line around 68. Same target as last week but this week they closed the weekly bar above 64 which was my line in the sand. If they continue here, they will likely squeeze much higher again. 69 next target. Nothing changed in this.
Invalidation is below 60.
bear case: Bears have going for them that they stopped the bounce at the breakout area and under the 50% retracement, which is very important for them. If they get a daily close below 60, we could go lower again but until then it’s a clear trading range 60-52. Market is neutral for me, despite not going above the 50% retracement.
Invalidation is a daily close above 65.
short term: Neutral 60-65, bullish above for 69 and bearish below for 55.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-27: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected.
Nothing happened the past week so no better update on this. Will tariffs likely or are they already dampening consumption? Most likely. Will this be reflected in Oil demand in the near term? No fucking clue. Chart is in a bear trend but at such a huge support for so many years, I doubt we go much lower but we could range here for longer.
comment: Market went nowhere past week so nothing changed from my last weeks update. Bulls want to retest the upper bear trend line around 69 and bears reversing below the 50% retracement of the bear trend that started in January. I do not have an opinion on where the breakout will happen, I can see it going both ways.
current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart - daily chart is a bear trend that could be transitioning into a trading range again
key levels: 55 - 69
bull case: Bulls see it as a failed acceleration down and want to retest the prior bear trend line around 68. Same target as last week but this week they closed the weekly bar above 64 which was my line in the sand. If they continue here, they will likely squeeze much higher again. 69 next target. Nothing changed in this.
Invalidation is below 60.
bear case: Bears have going for them that they stopped the bounce at the breakout area and under the 50% retracement, which is very important for them. If they get a daily close below 60, we could go lower again but until then it’s a clear trading range 60-52. Market is neutral for me, despite not going above the 50% retracement.
Invalidation is a daily close above 65.
short term: Neutral 60-65, bullish above for 69 and bearish below for 55.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-27: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected.
Nothing happened the past week so no better update on this. Will tariffs likely or are they already dampening consumption? Most likely. Will this be reflected in Oil demand in the near term? No fucking clue. Chart is in a bear trend but at such a huge support for so many years, I doubt we go much lower but we could range here for longer.
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。