2024-05-09 - a daily price action after hour update - gold

5月9日

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

Gold
comment: Strong buying today and bulls made a higher low and higher highs. Please have a look at my chart, which contains my next best guess on what could happen. 2375ish has enough targets to be a magnet above but I don’t think we can get there without a pull-back. A retest of 2448 is still very possible.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels: 2300 - 2400

bull case: The 4h tf looks easy but bears got deep pull-backs today. Bulls completed a 3 push pattern upwards and I expect a two-legged correction before we try higher again. Invalid below 2320. Targets above are 2360 and 2375ish above.

bear case: It’s still inside a big trading range and market is two sided, despite the higher prices. Bears selling new highs and making money, so don’t just stop that. As long as bears keep this below 2365, it’s a lower high inside this large bull flag from the ath 2448. Bears targets are trading below 1h 20ema 2333 and then retest 2313 and then break out of the bull channel again. Invalid above 2380.

short term: Sideways to up - expecting a smaller pull-back before another try to break 2370.

medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. It would not surprise me, if we just continue the selling all the way back to 2100 and lower.

trade of the day: Big breakout before US session above 2330, retest down to 2320 on smaller time frames and then a perfect buy signal after the retest.

Breakout → Pull-back → long/short (continuation of breakout) are very strong and reliable patterns.