Once the market digests the news, I think this has a high probability of playing out. The pattern has looked great for some time.
Persistent Bullish divergence has been working towards a move, and a catalyst like China restricting exports of rare earth minerals of all things is simply perfect for the setup. China is MP's largest competitor.
I believe this pattern has been designed and built over the past year specifically to balance out for this news release. I think it's a big deal.