Microsoft at the end of it's bull rally? Bearish wedge

2018年9月28日

Looks like the perfect wedge to short for Microsoft. But US tech stocks have been crazy lately so it's not without risk, but the risk reward is amazing. If it does make a drop, it could potentially become a big H&S as well, but i think that might be too early. I am still waiting for the US stock market to crash, to start the long term bear market, but Americans are always way too positive. So i am not fighting it, just trying to catch patterns like this in the meantime.

2018年9月28日

註釋

Safe play is, waiting for the green support to break, or scaling in parts.

2018年10月1日

註釋

Unfortunately we never broke the support line of the wedge and went up again. The wedge is still in play, but it is becoming too big and therefore less reliable. Unless we see a quick drop the coming days, we might as well assume the wedge is invalid.

2018年10月5日

註釋

So the drop was just in time, even though the wedge actually became a bit too big. But this quick drop does confirm the wedge so far. So we should stay below the 114ish from now on with a max at 116.

2018年10月8日

註釋

Looks like MSFT could for a small inverse H&S, if that neckline breaks, it would be best to close the position or at least part of it. Re enter again after reaching it's target.

2018年10月8日

註釋

The inverse H&S failed completely today, the right shoulder never even had a chance, so we have seen a counter move since, it could mean the target would get reached today already!! :)

2018年10月10日

註釋

Stock markets are making a good dump again today and MSFT has reached it's target already. For the ones who don't understand trading besides crypto, you can see this move as a 500/1000 point drop on Bitcoin.

Anyway, the target has been reached. So it's always best to take some profit here, completely or partially, depending on what your goal is. It is around a support level now, so we might see a bounce up from these levels to make that right should of a potential H&S. But if it doesn't hold, we can assume the target will get reached anyway. That target is around 101/98. My early followers know i am still waiting for the big bear market to start for quite some time now, so this could potentially be it already. But to prevent to being trapped, one has to make up his mind on what the plan will be.

2018年10月15日

註釋

So far its following the blue line, making the right shoulder of this possible H&S. The right shoulder is small in time but not in price, but if we break it the coming days, the target could also be reached very quickly!

2018年10月22日

註釋

Microsoft bounced up more that it should to form a right shoulder, this tells us something else is probably going on. Does not mean the H&S is completely off the table.
Tomorrow might be an important day, if we see a good quick break of that red zone, it probably means we move up more. If it is a slow move move ( like the blue line) or a very quick rejection, we could see an acceleration down.

It looks like the right shoulder has turned into a triangle, so we can expect a break up or down this week and probably even tomorrow.