Context
Price failed to clear $554–$555, the 1:1 measured move from the May flag.
A bearish double top formed on the daily; the downswing was kicked off by an island reversal.
Daily Structure
Today price lost $493–$492 (valley/neckline), confirming the double-top breakdown.
Volume confirms: heavier on down days, lighter on bounces.
Price is below the 5-day MA; the 21-day MA is acting as dynamic resistance.
The 50-day and 100-day MAs have also been lost, reinforcing intermediate weakness.
Weekly Context
The major trend remains intact above the longer MA, but the 21-day MA is now broken, aligning the weekly picture with daily weakness.
Key Levels
Resistance: $493–$492 (now breakdown/neckline); $554–$555 (measured-move cap).
Supports on the path lower: intermediate help from the 50/100-day MAs; the 200-day sits beneath the gap.
Target on confirmation: $430–$429 (top of the FVG) via a 1:1 measured move from the double-top.
Scenarios
Bearish continuation (primary): A weekly close below $493–$492 keeps momentum pointed to $430–$429. Expect potential pauses at the 50/100-day MAs; failure there leaves the FVG magnet in play with the 200-day below.
Bullish repair (secondary): A swift reclaim of $493–$492 followed by acceptance back above the 21-day MA would neutralize the breakdown and defer the measured-move path.
Triggers
Downside trigger: Friday close < $493–$492 → activates the 1:1 toward $430–$429.
Upside repair trigger: Daily close back > $493–$492 and back over the 21-day MA → negates immediate breakdown risk.
Risk & Invalidation
Bearish view invalidates on sustained closes back above $493–$492 with the 21-day MA reclaimed as support.
Until then, trend-following bias favors lower highs / lower lows on the daily.
Summary
Rejection at $554–$555, a double-top breakdown through $493–$492, confirming volume, and loss of the 5/21/50/100-day MAs all align bearish in the intermediate term.
The weekly trend is still up overall, but breaking the 21-day brings it into agreement with the daily.
Watch $493–$492 into the weekly close; it’s the pivot between a measured-move drive to $430–$429 and a repair back into range.
Price failed to clear $554–$555, the 1:1 measured move from the May flag.
A bearish double top formed on the daily; the downswing was kicked off by an island reversal.
Daily Structure
Today price lost $493–$492 (valley/neckline), confirming the double-top breakdown.
Volume confirms: heavier on down days, lighter on bounces.
Price is below the 5-day MA; the 21-day MA is acting as dynamic resistance.
The 50-day and 100-day MAs have also been lost, reinforcing intermediate weakness.
Weekly Context
The major trend remains intact above the longer MA, but the 21-day MA is now broken, aligning the weekly picture with daily weakness.
Key Levels
Resistance: $493–$492 (now breakdown/neckline); $554–$555 (measured-move cap).
Supports on the path lower: intermediate help from the 50/100-day MAs; the 200-day sits beneath the gap.
Target on confirmation: $430–$429 (top of the FVG) via a 1:1 measured move from the double-top.
Scenarios
Bearish continuation (primary): A weekly close below $493–$492 keeps momentum pointed to $430–$429. Expect potential pauses at the 50/100-day MAs; failure there leaves the FVG magnet in play with the 200-day below.
Bullish repair (secondary): A swift reclaim of $493–$492 followed by acceptance back above the 21-day MA would neutralize the breakdown and defer the measured-move path.
Triggers
Downside trigger: Friday close < $493–$492 → activates the 1:1 toward $430–$429.
Upside repair trigger: Daily close back > $493–$492 and back over the 21-day MA → negates immediate breakdown risk.
Risk & Invalidation
Bearish view invalidates on sustained closes back above $493–$492 with the 21-day MA reclaimed as support.
Until then, trend-following bias favors lower highs / lower lows on the daily.
Summary
Rejection at $554–$555, a double-top breakdown through $493–$492, confirming volume, and loss of the 5/21/50/100-day MAs all align bearish in the intermediate term.
The weekly trend is still up overall, but breaking the 21-day brings it into agreement with the daily.
Watch $493–$492 into the weekly close; it’s the pivot between a measured-move drive to $430–$429 and a repair back into range.
免責聲明
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
免責聲明
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.