The report is good, but there is no stock dynamics

8月28日

MSFT gapped up at around $555 on the report and reached a market cap of $4.1 trillion

This happened because the report significantly exceeded expectations on key metrics

The latest quarterly report showed record results.
Revenue for the quarter was $76.4 billion (up 18% y/y)
Net income was $27.2 billion (up 24% y/y).
EPS was $3.65, exceeding analysts' expectations

However, the shares are falling and are already below the level they were before the report.

Capex was increased to $24.2 billion (up 27% YoY)
For fiscal 2026, management forecasts further Capex growth (over $30 billion in Q1 alone)
Operating expenses increased 6% YoY due to investments in AI and engineering
The company recorded $1.71 billion in other expenses in the quarter, partly related to losses on equity investments (likely in OpenAI)

In the call with investors, the company's management warned market participants about further margin compression in the short term and higher-than-expected capital expenditures on AI infrastructure.

Accordingly, this raises questions about the future profitability of both the investments themselves and the future results of the company as a whole, which will be released in future reports.
Professional investors have begun to change their DCF models in accordance with the new data.

From a “tech” perspective, we are seeing weaker dynamics in the broad market.
It is clear how the company's comments have broken the up trend that has been observed in recent months.

We expect further cooling of sentiment in the stock, the closing of another gap from below and a slide in the price to the $400-420.

9月5日

交易進行

🐻Despite the fact that today S&P500 set a historical maximum, MSFT shares are already -1.5%.
We expect the fall to continue