Microsoft in Focus Ahead of Key Earnings, AI Outlook Under Watch

Macro:
- Microsoft (MSFT) climbed on cautious optimism ahead of major earnings and economic data.
- Four of the “Magnificent Seven,” AMZN, AAPL, META, and MSFT, are set to report, with investors focusing on Microsoft (MSFT) today.
- Wall Street expects EPS of 3.22 USD and revenue of 68.44 B USD, both up YoY. Microsoft’s strength in AI, cloud, and enterprise software, along with its continued investment in AI talent and solid dividend history, makes this a closely watched report.
- Key drivers will be its results, AI/cloud growth outlook, and forward guidance, while any surprises could shift the stock sharply.

Technical:
- MSFT recovered and tested the resistance at around 396, confluence with EMA78. The price is sideways, and we await a clearer breakout to determine the following direction.
- If MSFT breaks above 396, the price may approach the following resistance at 405, confluence with the 100% Fibonancci Extension.
- On the contrary, remaining below 396 may prompt a retest to the support at around 378, confluence with the broken descending channel.


Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness