Which Way Is MSFT Currently Leaning?

1. Bull Case Scenario

• The current zone near $386 is a pivotal horizontal support. If MSFT stabilizes here and buyers step in, a short‐term bounce is likely.
  
• Moving averages are converging around $401–$410. A daily close above this band(~420—would signal a bullish reversal attempt.
  
• RSI near 40–45: A push back above 50 would hint that momentum is shifting bullish again.
  
• Stochastics are in the lower range (30s), so a crossover back up can foreshadow a price rebound.
  
• PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) turning from negative to positive would reinforce a new upswing.
  
• Upside Targets
  
• First target: $417–$418 (overhead volume node + prior swing high).
  
• Next: Potential retest of $450–$465 if the broader market and fundamentals align.
  
• Follow‐through above $420 to confirm the trend change.
  

2. Bear Case Scenario

• Descending Trendline & Lower Highs:-The teal trendline from the peak (~$465) remains intact. Price making lower highs confirms a short‐term downtrend unless it breaks above $420.
  
• Losing $386 support signals bears remain in control.
  

Next Supports:

• $367 → Moderate volume node and horizontal pivot.
  
• $335 → Deeper support aligned with a larger volume shelf.
  
• $307 / $269 → Major downside targets if selling accelerates.
  

Momentum Indicators Lean Bearish

• RSI < 50 and PMO negative both favor continued downside.
  
• Stochastics near oversold can trigger short bounces, but until price reclaims key MAs, rallies may fail.
  

Downside Targets

• A daily close below $386 would initially open the door to $367. If that fails, $337–$307 come into play.
  

What to Watch

• Momentum Confirmation: If RSI stays under 50 and PMO remains negative, it strengthens the bearish bias.
  
• Volume Spike on a breakdown: Confirms heavier selling pressure.
  

3. Which Way Is MSFT Currently Leaning?

• Short‐Term Bias: Neutral‐to‐Bearish
  
• Price is below the short‐term MAs, RSI is under 50, and PMO is negative—tilting momentum to the downside.
  
• The $386 level is the last near‐term defense for the bulls.
  

Potential for a Bounce:

• If $386 holds and momentum oscillators (RSI, Stochastics) turn up, expect a test of $401–$410.
  

Key Inflection:

• A breakdown below $386 → more downside.
  
• A breakout above $410 → potential trend reversal.
  
• Overall, bears have the edge unless MSFT can reclaim its short‐term MAs and push RSI back above 50.