MSTR · 4H —Early Bearish Divergence Detected Near Key Fib Target

Setup Breakdown


Price recently broke out from a falling wedge and hit both technical targets — first at ~$409 (78.6%) and then ~$419 (100%).


However, momentum is weakening despite price hovering near the highs.


We're now seeing early bearish divergence on multiple timeframes and oscillators, signaling potential reversal or pullback.



⚠️ Bearish Signals


RSI Divergence
Price made higher highs while RSI made lower highs — classic bearish divergence.


Double confirmation
Both RSI with MA and pure RSI show declining momentum.


Volume drop
Price is rising but volume is not following — another early warning sign.




🔻 Potential Breakdown Trigger


If price closes below $407–405, that would break short-term structure and confirm the divergence risk.


Watch for RSI to drop below 50 and volume to spike on red candles — that would likely accelerate the correction.



📉 Downside Zones to Watch

$400
=> 61.8% Fib retracement + consolidation base


$395
=> 50% Fib retracement


$389
=> 38.2% Fib retracement + prior breakout support




✅ Summary


Divergence is still early but meaningful — momentum does not support current price highs.


A breakdown from current levels could open a short window down to $386 or even $371 if confirmed.


Watch RSI + volume + candle structure for confirmation before acting.




Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always manage your own risk and follow your trading plan.



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