(MSTR) – Cup & Handle Brewing Inside a Rising Wedge?

MSTR is currently trading around $384, consolidating just under a significant historical resistance near $432, the neckline of a potential cup and handle formation. Price action has respected a rising wedge channel since mid-April, making higher highs and higher lows with relatively muted volume – a classic consolidation before a breakout... or breakdown.

The Cup and Handle – Brewing or Breaking?
Cup Formation: The cup ranges from the November 2023 high down to the January 2024 lows and back up, completing the round base at ~$432.

Handle Formation: Price has been forming a descending handle within the rising wedge, staying above key moving averages.

Breakout Target (Cup & Handle):

Cup depth: ~$432 - ~$290 = $142

If confirmed breakout occurs above $432, measured move takes us to ~$574

Bullish Validation:
Close above $432 on strong volume confirms breakout.

Look for volume spike + strong Heikin Ashi candles with little/no wicks below body.

Momentum indicators (MACD crossover + RSI breaking 60+) would further confirm.

Bearish Breakdown Scenario:
A confirmed breakdown below $360 (channel support + BB midline) would shift momentum bearish.

$352 (100 EMA) is the next critical level — if this goes, the structure weakens significantly.

Watch for a test of $332, which aligns with both Bollinger Band support and a horizontal demand zone.

A full breakdown of the channel and cup handle structure could see price revisiting the base of the cup near $290–292, where the 233 SMA and major historical support converge.

Indicators:
MACD: Bullish crossover forming, histogram slightly positive. Needs stronger momentum to sustain rally.

RSI: Neutral zone (~52). Not overbought or oversold – room to move in either direction.

Volume: Volume is decreasing, typical before a big move. A spike will hint at direction.

Final Thoughts
MSTR is at a pivotal technical crossroads. The broader setup shows a cup and handle formation in progress, with the handle unfolding inside a well-defined ascending channel — a bullish structure that supports continuation if price holds key levels.

To confirm the cup and handle, bulls need to see a clean breakout and close above $432, preferably on increased volume. That would validate the pattern and open up a measured move target toward $574+.

Meanwhile, the ascending channel remains intact, guiding price higher with higher lows and highs. To maintain this structure, MSTR must hold support above $360–352. A sustained bounce off this zone would reinforce both the channel and the handle as part of the bullish setup.

However, if price breaks below $352 and especially closes below $332, it would invalidate the ascending channel and begin to threaten the cup’s base structure. A breakdown toward $290–292 would likely follow, where the entire pattern would need to be reassessed.

Until a breakout above $432 or a breakdown below $352–332 is confirmed, this remains a neutral “watch zone”. Swing traders should be cautious, but keep alerts set, a move in either direction could be powerful and directional.