Shiller Ratio (Sat Jun 13, 2020)

2020年6月13日

Here's an update of the Shiller index which I formulated in the chart above with longer term timeframes to show the breadth of the situation. The U.S. equity market now appears "cheap" to many--the ones who have named this so called "V" shaped recovery in the U.S. equity markets, however it's important to keep context in mind when looking back at a decade of earnings growth compared to 1919.Into December of 1919, the CAPE was at an all-time low. With so much focus on 1919 going into the COVID-19 pandemic among market commentary, the comparison that this chart allows to make is 1919 to 2019, with a suggestion of downtrend.

If the SPX indeed returns to multiples in 1919, that would put a market valuation of the SPX at around $500 according to the CAPE ratio.