H&S Watch! Pullback Toward 18.4K Likely, POC at 15K is Critical!

This chart presents a comprehensive technical and macro assessment of the NASDAQ 100 (US100) using the daily timeframe. The focal point is a developing Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, currently unconfirmed, but well-formed with strong structural and momentum confluence.

🧠 Thought Process & Structure

The chart reveals a potential H&S pattern with the right shoulder forming just below 22,200. While the neckline at 18,400 has not broken yet, several signals support the idea of a short-term pullback:

Bearish RSI divergence from the recent high

Stochastic crossovers on both daily and weekly timeframes from overbought levels

A large unfilled gap near 18,400 that is likely to act as a magnet

Rather than predicting an immediate collapse, this analysis takes a probability-weighted approach and lays out both bullish and bearish outcomes clearly.

📉 Current Expectation: Pullback Toward 18,400

A move toward 18,400 is the base case. This level represents:

The neckline of the H&S structure

The location of Gap Fill Target 2

A prior demand zone from April 2025

A bounce here would not invalidate the pattern but could delay its confirmation. It’s also a valid level for a short-term long trade setup if buyers defend it strongly.

⚠️ Break Below 18,400: POC Zone Becomes Critical

Should 18,400 break decisively, the market could test the Point of Control (POC) around 15,000. This zone:

Has the highest historical volume concentration

Aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement

Marks the new measured move target of the Head & Shoulders pattern

In short, 15,000 becomes the most critical structural and psychological support. If it fails, deeper risk reopens.

🔻 Deeper Move Scenarios (Now Less Likely)

Previous versions of this chart targeted 10,500. That level is now considered outside the measured move and only becomes viable if:

15,000 fails to hold

Macro conditions deteriorate sharply (e.g., inflation remains sticky, Fed turns hawkish, or recession triggers a risk-off rotation)

At this time, such an extended move is low probability.

📈 Bullish Invalidation

A breakout above 22,200 with strong volume would invalidate the entire bearish pattern. This would suggest bullish continuation and open the door to 24,000 and beyond. This scenario is also plotted on the chart and clearly labeled.

🧭 Trading Plan

Monitor for rejection or bounce at 18,400

If it holds, long opportunity may develop

If it fails, prepare for POC test at 15,000

Only consider deeper targets if breakdown volume is strong

Invalidate bearish outlook if price closes decisively above 22,200

📅 Macro Events to Watch (June–July 2025)

June 6 – Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

June 11 – CPI Report (May)

June 17–18 – FOMC Meeting

June 26 – Final Q1 GDP

June 27 – PCE Inflation

July 3 – June Employment Report

July 15 – June CPI

July 30 – FOMC Meeting #5 & Q2 GDP Advance Estimate

These events could act as triggers for either confirming or invalidating the current technical setup.

✅ Summary

This is a developing setup — not a confirmed breakdown. The current expectation is a pullback toward 18,400, with a potential bounce. If that support fails, the 15,000 POC becomes the key level to watch. The measured move of the H&S pattern now targets 15,000 — not 10,500. Deeper downside should only be considered if strong macro or volume-based catalysts emerge.

This approach allows for flexibility, clarity, and trade planning without bias. Let the chart prove itself — and be ready either way.